Anavex climbs the 'Wall of Worry!' Accumulation of big lots today. There were a number of 10K plus market orders today even as the total volume was below average most seemed to be buying especially the big market orders.I saw a 20K market buy go off within one second in a 5 min. midday candle. Those would not generally be retail action.
Falconer makes a logical point that it really makes little difference if the Trials start this month or sometime in early 2018. Institutions and professionals will likewise examine the issue logically; it does not matter. Overanxious retail shareholders are being played like a cheap fiddle and controlled like Dr Pavlov's Dog with this nonsensical focus on starting the Trials this month. It is not as if AVXL passes to the dark cold side of the moon on Dec 31st where the Trials are frozen. Management focus is on managing the risk of the clinical trials to garner the greatest chance of success.
One of the primary factors for the success of the trials is the FDA agreed on protocols and endpoints of the trials. If the gears are grinding slowly at the FDA so be it. We want the FDA to get it right, not get it quickly at the expense of the best Trial parameters. Management of Anavex wants to get it right and will not incur unnecessary risks for the sake of expediency.
It is a fool's game to predict that the stock will tank if the trials are delayed because to the professionals that actually move the market it is of little importance. What is important is to be careful and get it right. Anavex could come out and announce the Trials will be delayed and the 'Ticker' AVXL's share price is just as likely to pop as to tank or stay the same. What is likely is in a short time the share price will revert to the mean especially on such a meaningless knee-jerk reaction.
What will likely have a meaningful and lasting effect on the share price is the FDA agreed on endpoints and protocols of the Trials. If the major market participants see these as favorable for increased probability of Trial success then the share price should experience positive appreciation.
Many are anxious, settle down. While the road to success is difficult, steep, rough and narrow with many messages and posts by the mainstream media and elsewhere warning of this route; the road to ruin is easy, smooth and wide with Wall Street pundits, media and Investment Houses recommending that course of investment. Case in point all of V. R.'s 'Vant companies that have raised BILLIONs on Wall Street IPOs and suckered in countless investors Retail and Institutional alike but have not one approved drug and nary a successful trial. Illustration; the 'Vant that starts with an 'A' failed miserably in ALZ Trial as most on this board knew it would. But it came highly touted by Wall Street, and the likes of Cramer. Oppenheimer & Co. a major full-service Investment house with respected analysts had it on its conviction buy list!
In my opinion, Anavex Life Sciences is supremely undervalued and currently is, on a risk-adjusted basis, is the most undervalued it has ever been. Sure AVXL has been lower priced, in early 2015 and before it traded for under a buck but it carried a lot more risk at that time, both clinical and financial. Now Anavex is on the cusp of confirmatory clinical trials and is in a fairly solid financial condition with no debt.
Timing wise AVXL looks to be ripe for accumulation. AVXL has been technically weak since the latest peak on Oct 23, 2017, suffering a persistent slide that has tested the patience of many shareholders.
This could be changing and AVXL may currently be starting a reversal. Another poster (the one that is 'so kool') pointed out last Friday, Dec 1st that a momentum indicator was signalling that that slide in AVXL share price becoming exhausted. The indicator 'perfected' on Monday, Dec. 4th signalling a low-risk long entry buy. Those are signals are BIAS ONLY but it held up as expected and the share price held that LOW this week. Then yesterday the Japanese Candle formations showed a Bullish Harami Doji Cross which just indicates indecision in the market and the bias to the direction would depend on the next day's action so needed to be confirmed. AVXL confirmed today Dec 8th so that shows a BIAS for a possible trend reversal. Those things do not mean anything in the long or intermediate term but short term it indicates a bias for AVXL to start trading higher, not lower.
What really matters for the short term share price are the Trial Endpoints and Protocols as agreed by the FDA and how the Market perceives these increase or decrease the probability of approval of A2-73. The timing of the Trial starts was estimated, not promised to start before the end of the year. But delay into 2018 should be immaterial as long as not an undue delay.
Best wishes to All.
Go Avavex>>>>>>>>>.+4
