Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

A Whimper or a Whopper?

the SP performance has been worse than dismal !!!!!!

All of us must confront the reality. Simply, the market does not much know about, care about, nor respond to any internal or yet-to-happen Anavex matters. Here, we know in great detail the company’s pipeline of new drugs, how they work, how they’ve treated some Australians, and how three new, confirmatory clinical trials should soon be started.

We know all of that. No one else does. No one else cares. For new buyers of AVXL (presently there are few), all of what we post here, pro or con, bullish or bearish, simply does not influence any expanding volume or AVXL share prices.

And, be prepared — hope I’m wrong — a very good chance announcement of any new trial, per se, will stir up not a whiff of new interest in Anavex. Sure, we know that the trials will be crucial steps toward eventual FDA approval and commercial use and sales of Anavex 2-73. But ask yourself, how will those not closely following Anavex going to know any of that? Or care?

Sure, the company’s announcement of a new trial start, probably first for Rett, will get a nicely worded paragraph or two. But no one reading it unfamiliar with all that we know here, will react other than to click on to some other info, perhaps a sports score (just as relevant to those unfamiliar with Anavex).

Why should any of us AVXL longs thoughtfully think a prompt announcement of the start of some obscure clinical trial for an obscure disease testing a new, unknown drug will nudge any number of newbies to place new share-buying bets on Anavex Life Sciences Corp?

When they learn the company is trying to conquer three heretofore unconquerables, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and Rett, game over. “Tell me more, but only when I can see just how those questionable trials actually turn out. Nobody else had anything that ever worked.”

New AVXL share buyers won’t act until they see the same data the FDA wants to see. Safety, efficacy, in a proper confirmation Phase 3 trial.

Again, hope I’m wrong. But I just can’t see that anything prompting an AVXL price rise will result from merely a new trials start announcement. For the retail Anavex market, it’s just no big thing. Only the prospects of real drug sales are; that means an FDA approval announcement. That won’t happen before some posters’ 31 December drop dead date.

For all of us with AVXL shares, 2017 is likely to whither away in a whimper. Nothing big until next year, then with final trials results and all they will portend.

Then.... Hold on!