Thanks to Senti for that detailed statistical analysis. Efforts like that give me more cause for optimism than some of the other threads that people pursue.
As much as I respect Senti, it does concern me that people don't try to verify the math before they respond, either in a positive or negative way. I am inclined to believe that her work is more likely to be accurate, given her contributions to this message board. But I haven't dug into her math, so I am guilty as others.
I am still long. But part of my reluctance to enthusiastically get behind NWBO is that that I have some experience with small biotechs. Statistically speaking, and this is irrefutable - most phase 3 trials fail.
And most companies don't clam up and leave shareholders in the dark. I know, I've read the posts - they were forced to do so because they are under siege. I don't accept that. NWBO could release simple statements w/o giving any indication of their expectations of success.
It is very unusual to not give an estimate on the release of topline results. Most companies don't break it out with details on the data lock, scrubbing, and the release of data...they just say something like, "we expect topline results in Q3, 2018". To me, the fact that NWBO can't or won't do that is a red flag.
Maybe LP is laying in wait, and will spring a trap on the short sellers, as some have suggested. I certainly hope so. But that doesn't seem to me to be likely.
I hope the data lock has occurred. It could have occurred in August, assuming the final 2 OS events occurred in July - and if so, topline data could have been released last month. Since we have no topline results, and no indication of when we will get topline results, I can't interpret that as positive.
There is the chance that LP has a trick up her sleeve - great if she does! It certainly is possible that they are preparing a blockbuster PR at this moment. Who could oppose that?!
But if we don't have a positive PR by Wednesday, November 22, then, IMO the potential for a negative PR will be escalating from Thanksgiving through the end of the year.
There are a lot of smart posters here, who have been impacted by cancer one way or another. My mother had a breast removed before she died. My uncle died from lung cancer. My grandmother died from pancreatic cancer as a young woman - I never met her.
No one wants cancer to win - no one! But I think time is running out for me to think NWBO is going to deliver. I never sell all at once. But starting with Thanksgiving Day, in the absence of news between now and then, my skepticism will be rising, and I will be lightening.
Good luck to all. I think all opinions have merit, whether or not I agree with them.
