Sandpaints,
I like your thinking. There are so many nuances to the Fibertower case that it is extremely difficult to map out all the plays, angles, and outcomes.
1 - ATT (Somewhat joined at the hip with FCC)
Simply want the spectrum to become the over the top 5G Cable Killer and keep pace with Verizon. I think they know they have this in the bag.
2 - FCC (Supposed to represent the people and treasury)
Want ATT to have the assets to get 5G going. Need to avoid the perception of facilitating a fraud on the people and the agency.
In a difficult pickle and can’t block this move due to the STRP deal. STRP’s shady moves dwarf that of Fibertower.
Need to get their pound of flesh out of this transaction simply to have that announcement of a $100M…$200M win for the people and the treasury.
3 - Bankruptcy Court
These guys seemed to be the greatest facilitator of a potential swindle. To enable the valuation that they did on Wireless Spectrum Assets of near $0 simply because the assets were in question and would possibly be forfeited back to the FCC. Even though they were spending millions on legal fees in order to preserve the asset. If this were allowed to stand then what future abuses could take place. Their chances in court in 2019 to get the licenses back were far greater than the less than 1% chance they assigned through valuation. It also doesn’t help their decision that if this deal approaches $1B+ and the STRP deal was $3.1B that the court was either hoodwinked or essentially asleep at the wheel. Possibly the soon to be retired from the bench judge didn’t give a rip. Who knows why there was no clause put in that if the assets in limbo are sold or recovered that the unsecured and shareholders would not partake. Think about it. Just about any company could figure out ways to place their assets into limbo, eliminate all liabilities and shareholders, and then recapture the assets later in a courtroom. What me the average Joe sees is fraud but legals minds may simply see shrewd legal maneuvering.
Does the BK Court want their mark on this? Does the FCC want their mark on this? See Fahy and Levy Docs/Petitions as they outlined this pretty well as to why the BK case is still in flux. Whether the docs they have submitted have any clout with the FCC waits to be seen.
4 - Fibertower Bondholders
These guys end up winning no matter what. If the shareholders get screwed out of everything then these guys make $1B versus $800M(Just Examples) but either way they win. Just one way they win more and the other they win but just a little less.
5 - Fibertower Unsecured Creditors
These guys should be made whole.
6 - Fibertower Shareholders
No petition from Art Samberg's party? I would estimate that the bondholders(Incl Samberg in some form) probably own at least 75-85%(40M / 48M shares outstanding)
7 – Tmobile….well these guys are simply pulling fire alarms in the building to slow down the party. Remember a few years ago they were submitting documents for the FCC to give the licenses back.
8 – Sprint….no comment on the current situation but like Tmobile were submitting documents for the FCC to give the license back.
We are now at day 220 from March 16th, 2017. 40 Days past the 180 day shot clock. I would anticipate a decision or major update by year end but seeing this run into 2018 would not surprise me.
My gut is that it is in the bag that ATT will end up with the Licenses but the financial pie, number of pieces, size of the pieces, and who actually gets a slice is up in the air.
Just hoping that they don’t try and buy off the common with a $1 or $2 offering with some bs justification.
