NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Ivan Drago]

We're currently at a MC of 50M. I think a MC of 5B is attainable if DCVax is approved. Here's my post from SA from a while back:

Assumptions: 20%-40% market share, 150K per treatment.
If you extrapolate 13K cases/year in U.S. (0.004%) to world population you'll get 300K cases/year. Now let's assume that only 15% of those (predominantly North America, Europe, Australia, some Asian countries) will be able to afford it or have it covered by insurance. That still leaves us with 45K addressable market. Assuming NWBO's market share of 20-40% (and that's pretty conservative, should probably be more like 50-70%) gives us a range of 9K-18K cases. Using 150K/treatment this translates to 1.4-2.7B in annual revenues, just for DCVax-L.

An alternative approach would be to take just the population of U.S., Canada, Europe and Australia (325+32+740+20=1.1B), then using 0.004% this would translate to 44K cases/year. Taking 20%-40% market share of that still leaves us with the same range of 9-18K cases, or 1.4-2.7B annual revenue.

Apply whatever multiple you want to this, I'd probably do 4x or 5x to be conservative. That will leave us with a MC of 5.6B minimum. 100 times more than what the current MC is...