manibiotech,
I know it may seem strange but some of us are looking beyond initial news because we think OS benefit, even in blended form, if not attibutable to anything else, will be viewed as due to treatment received by 90% of all patients. Dr. Linda Liau's statements and the trial data released to date have given some investors reason to be more confident perhaps than others in this regard so maybe this thread is more about each of our confidence levels than specifically about Phase 3 data. This is perhaps because some of us believe that data release will only be a formal validation of what has already been expected. Did you happen to notice flipper44's call on Rindo that he posted well before the trial results were published? Science helps make the otherwise unpredictable more predictable and flipper's analysis fits that bill.
Business strategy is another generally a strong reflection of where expected opportunity and survival of the business must be weighed in the balances with the need for survival being the dominant force. NWBO chose to stay the course with L because they believed that in doing so they would not only survive but be more highly rewarded and be able to grow the business organically. Apart from the priveledged position of isider response to information only they have, I think many posters seem to forget that India just approved a dendritic cell therapy in other indications this year and that this should logically have been construed as a positive for this Phase 3 trial. When this approval is placed in the context of all the additional data point evidence, which has been used for comparative analysis by several posters, and independent positive comments from various Drs about L, the gradual change in bear sentiment was easy to predict. This is in addition to how we might interpret other obvious price manipulation strategies and who might be involved. Note that none of the independently done comparative analysis resulted in negative outcomes. The bears have never shared such an in depth comparative analysis until AVII77 attempted to do so just recently because they had no good way to predict a poor outcome from the evidence. For the past 5 years many simply chose to express ongoing doubts about maturation process, DC mobility, strength of immune response, trial integrity, potential imaging problems, crossover confoundment, management integrity, positive analyst integrity, director integrity, financial integrity. Those doubts have obviously been fleeing away very suddenly instead of gradually as evidence was building. Why anyone would think that a trial that has gone on for almost 10 years would not have been blown out of the water by regulators or affiliated institutions if there was no hint of benefit at some point along the way, I don't know. There may be a rare exception where a nearly 10 year trial has been given this leeway but certainly none affiliated with so many highly respected researchers and intitutions. Dr. Linda Liau's character alone is unimpeachable and she said DCVax is her greatest achievement. You don't call a placebo your greatest achievement and then get rewarded with being named chair of the neurology department at UCLA.
If there is OS benefit, as AVII77 and others have come around to believing is more and more likely the case, then approval seems more likely than not. Getting the details worked out for any doubters is what happens when you are building consensus and consensus moves markets. On the surface we may all just be waiting for Phase 3 results but the positioning and impact of what goes on below the surface is also very real and that includes being commercially ready to launch and preparing for the market reaction to the news you believe you are about to share.
By the way, I know how the markets typically have their price controlled by market makers when news hits especially in a pre revenue company but I believe NWBO will have news that makes it act more like an IPO than a typical ongoing concern. DNDN had over a 25% legitimate short position when news hit and that was a price driver. NWBO has no where near that because a different strategy is in play. Some entity or group appears to want to exert a great deal of influence on this company and get as big of a chunk as they can. That is one reason why the price is where it is at now and perhaps why you believe market response will be controlled for a while. While you may be right I think there are way more deep pockets looking at this that are free to act immediately upon news than perhaps you do. Traders and some long term longs are being expected to sell at least some of their shares way too early. If this happens then even at $10-$30 per share we are only looking at a 9 billion dollar market cap speculative buyout price. That is chicken feed for big pharma or anyone who wants to buy big influence in this company through diverse channels especially when L can help checkpoint inhibitors and or perhaps Avastin improve patient benefit for about 3x more patients. The question for many is not whether data will be good but whether or not a majority of longs will sell too early if and when big positive news comes. Best wishes.
AI
