NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[meirluc]

exwannabe, why do you think the blinded data will do nothing for the PPS or FDA? There is plenty that the blinded data in the upcoming publication can forecast.
Beginning with the roughly 33 that never received DCVax-L. The publication can tell us how many of those did not progress by let's say July 2017 (38 months after midterm enrollment). Perhaps 11 (10% of the 110 controls failed to progress and that would be extraordinary after a 38 months midpoint. Perhaps they can even tell you that 13 of those 33 controls are still alive (11 controls that have not progressed and 2 of the remaining very sick group of 22 controls that did not get the vaccine and did progress).
They may also be able to tell you that in addition to the 11 PFS in the 33 unvaccinated control group they had 60 PFS in the remaining 298 patients (the 90% who received DCVax-L early or late). That 71 PFS number would be down from the roughly 83 PFS that were reported on 2/6/17. I am assuming an attrition of about 2 PFS per months if the 248 PFS event occurred during 12/16 since I disagree with you that it could have occurred that much earlier.
Since we had 11 PFS of the 71 in the control group we would have 60 living PFS all belonging to the 220 trial group. Since we have a total of 71 PFS (60 trial and 11 control) about 27 living patients remain from the hypothetical 98 living patients expected during July 2017. These 27 living patients must originate from the 160 progressed trial patients (220-60) and the late 78 late vaccinated controls (111-33). This is a ratio of trial to control of about 2:1 and if we assume that late DCVax-L is as efficacious as early DCVax-L we can add 18 trial and 9 controls to the list of the living. In summary we would have a total of 20 control (11+9) and 78 Trial (60+18) living during July 2017.
This ratio of 4:1 would be predictive of success (IMHO).
I realize that the numbers here are fictitious but I believe I was very conservative in assuming that 20 controls of 11 were still alive in 7/17.
Anyway the publication hopefully will have the real numbers so we shall see. Best Regards.