STOCK GOODIES PLAYS OF THE WEEK

[BoomPickens]

Dollar and Commodities

While the Dollar and currency markets are part of intermarket analysis, the Dollar is a bit of a wild card. As far as stocks are concerned, a weak Dollar is not bearish unless accompanied by a serious advance in commodity prices. Obviously, a big advance in commodities would be bearish for bonds. By extension, a weak Dollar is also generally bearish for bonds. A weak Dollar acts an economic stimulus by making US exports more competitive. This benefits large multinational stocks that derive a large portion of their sales overseas.

What are the effects of a rising Dollar? A countries currency is a reflection of its economy and national balance sheet. Countries with strong economies and strong balance sheets have stronger currencies. Countries with weak economies and big debt burdens are subject to weaker currencies. A rising Dollar puts downward pressure on commodity prices because many commodities are priced in Dollars, such as oil. Bonds benefit from a decline in commodity prices because this reduces inflationary pressures. Stocks can also benefit from a decline in commodity prices because this reduces the costs for raw materials.