The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[wow_happens28]

jbog, I can sort of compare this to the late 70's and early 80's, maybe not as bad, at least by news stories, believe them or not.. Early and mid 70's food commodity prices were good. Banks allegedly went to farmers and sold them on remortgages to buy new machinery. Then the bottom fell out and many farmers were foreclosed on and the banks sold the farms to corporate farmers. I have not read either way if banks got them remortgaging or not, but farmland real estate sure soared until recently giving impetus for remortgages. But, it is sure tough times for many farmers.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/land-use-land-value-tenure/farmland-value/

I would not be surprised to see RJA have a bear tap and dip below $6.00 for a while.

I am looking for more "Surprise" lower than forecast reports coming out. They won't be a surprise to me.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4113853-soybean-futures-surge-lower-production-estimates

And as always I keep seeing new negative stories on crop prospects.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-agriculture-dicamba/u-s-experts-doubt-epa-curbs-on-monsanto-basf-herbicides-will-halt-crop-damage-idUSKBN1CI21K

http://www.world-grain.com/articles/news_home/World_Grain_News/2017/10/Iraq_wheat_output_forecast_low.aspx?ID={23E16FB8-183A-4B3E-9EFE-9B384C0EEBB2}

If the dollar resumes it's fall, which I have no idea, except for my opinion of the US economy weakening in many areas, retail, especially. A lower dollar favors exports of grains, etc. Of course, the bear market rally could continue for a while. Just going back to the 2014 dollar we'd have 15% drop in the dollar.

https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m1

At lest I got a nice gain on my May 2nd cocoa purchase, NIB, for now, lol.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NIB&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44251357918