NY Crude Oil Futures Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | October 7, 2017
Analysis for the Week of October 9, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Oct. 6, 2017: Our immediate trend model is bearish as are our momentum models . Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 5084, 4931 5077, . Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 4912. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 5286 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 5286 to 4656. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
NY Crude Oil Futures closing today of 4929 so far is trading down about 8.24% for the year from last year's closing of 5372. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 6 days, while we have made a low at 4910 following the high established Thu. Sep. 28, 2017.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bearish immediate tone with resistance at 5286
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 25th at 5286, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of October 2nd, which has been a move of 5.04% percent. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 3 months.
Critical support still underlies this market at 4357 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Logically, my long-term study recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Crude Oil Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Crude Oil Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 5451 and 2605. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2016 which was a 8 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2016, this market has bounced so far this year, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 5451 to 2605. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2018 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new lows unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the decline as far out as 2021.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 3210 on an annual closing basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 14727 major high established back in 2008.
Inspecting the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of September 25th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 5451. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, the last week of 10/2 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 15 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th. The last high on the weekly level was 5286, which was created during the week of September 25th. However, we still remain below key resistance 4942 on a closing basis. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 3 months. The last monthly level low was 4205, which formed during June. The last high on the monthly level was 5524, which was created during January. However, we still remain below key resistance 5222 on a closing basis.
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