Hmm...
Let's see.
Suppose A2-73 turns out to do no more than improve the sleep of AD patients.
WE HAVE A BLOCKBUSTER
Suppose A2-73 turns out to do no more than reduce the severity and frequency of seizures (Rett, Epilepsy)
WE HAVE A BLOCKBUSTER
Suppose A2-73 turns out to do no more reduce the tremors and spasms (and improve the muscle control) of PD patients.
WE HAVE A BLOCKBUSTER
Suppose A2-73 does no more than delay the onset of dementia by a year of so.
WE HAVE A BLOCKBUSTER
and there are other diseases with pre-clinical positive indications to be explored.
Most would say that's a lot of suppositions MR. NWDR. However, these suppositions need to be examined in light of the available evidence. I did not purchase my Anavex shares because I believed A2-73 would reverse and cure AD. I looked at the clinical response of the 8 patients who reported sleep and insomnia problems and after 32? weeks reported no sleep issues. I looked at the pre-clinical seizure control data. This data showed a reduction in seizures of not 20% or 40% or 60%.. the reduction was 90-100%. I looked at the improvement in the P300 waveforms of the AD patients. This is a direct measurement of an improvement in brain function. I looked at the super responder data. Even if the super response is only achieved by 25% of the AD patient population for a year A2-73 would still be a major successful drug offering.
We only need one trial with a larger enough patient population to show positive data and Anavex will be an $80 stock.
How do I get this stock price?
16,000 girls and young women suffering with Rett Syndrome in the US.
Successful data from the Rett trial and eventual A2-73 approval. Orphan drug for a disease with no other treatment options. Yearly revenue per patient could easily be justified at $24K per patient.
So,
16k patients in the US
16K patients in the EU
8K patients in Japan
40K total potential patients, assume 50% treated, 20K treated
20K treated * $24K per year = $480M per year revenue
If A2-73 shows a significant reduction in seizures suffered by the Rett Syndrome patients then A2-73 will be the go to drug for Rett sufferers and their families. Then Anavex will be valued not on the basis of the revenue potential from treated Rett Syndrome. Anavex will instead start to be valued of a real possibility of treating Epilepsy.
Epilepsy valuation potential
2.2M patients in the US
2.6M patients in the EU
1.0M patients in Japan
25% treated
1.45M patients treated
low per year cost of $6K
revenue $8.7B!
Okay. We like to dream and this would be several years in the future before approval. However, if A2-73 shows a reduction of seizures of only some percentage for the Rett patients then some probability of the potential revenues from treating Epilepsy will be reflected in the pps.
I would like A2-73 to be able to cure AD. I would like A2-73 to be a major treatment advance for treatment of PD or MS. But to be successful A2-73 doesn't need to be a 'cure' for anything. Just improve the lives of the Rett sufferers. Let them get a night's sleep. Let their brains start to heal. Let a little light come into their world and we will all be richly rewarded. Not the least will be knowing our investments helped in some small way to improve the lives of those less fortunate.
Go AVXL.
ps. This is a very positive post. Please do your DD before investing and money. Manage your risk.
