T/A ETF AND INDEX

[MetalFillBoy]

BREADTH UPDATE 20 Sept 2006

Been a while, but looks like I have everything sorted out now.

The hourly chart is showing some negative D. Both Osc have make a lower high, especially on the volume Osc. They may both make one more bounce off the trend line and then a break down. Generally speaking, be short when the Osc is below zero, long above. But because it is a noisy signal, it can whip you some. Both MACD lines have also made a lower high, and have flattened out over the last few hours. Prices should start to fall some when the red line gets below 50, and with both lines having a down slope.
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The daily chart is also showing some interesting divergences. The first pane below the price pane is the McClellan Osc, based on price. Noticed how it has stayed above zero and have bounced off the zero line several time. It has been bouncing along in a channel (shown by the dashed lines). Now notice the pane below that one, the McClellan Osc, based on volume. While it has stayed above zero also (bullish), the peaks have been getting lower, showing less and less positive volume. This is a good example of using volume breadth to confirm price breadth. And while the market can do what it wants, I think the volume breadth is giving some warning here. Both MACD lines have bounced up from their reversals yesterday. With the blue this high, it can not go up much more. Again, look for the red line to start to decline and get below 50 for prices to really start to decline. Notice the last time the red line got to the 50 area; it bounced up.

BTW, the way I have the trendlines drawn on the price chart almost looks like it is forming a megaphone pattern. Can somebody comment on this, or have I got my trendlines drawn wrong? Thanks!



And finally, a weekly chart. I have not posted this time frame in a long time, but it was requested by hjones. I will try and do this one on the weekends. From this view, both the weekly Osc's look to be getting into a overbought point (above 50). Notice here that the volume Osc is backing up the price Osc. The red MACD line is getting into an overbought spot also (above 70), but notice the blue line; still well below the 50 line. I don't have enough back data to generate this chart back to the last bull market, but with it being below 50 (and a shallow up angle) is not good for a longer term bull move. My SWAG on this time frame is we turn over here in the next few weeks, first looking for the Osc's to break their trendlines, and see what they do when they get back to the zero line (see if they bounce or continue down).