Wednesday, September 13, 2017 9:40:21 PM
10 MASSIVE Reasons why you need to stop worrying about this stock's performance, NO ONE calling them self a long has a reason to flip out about AMFE's recent performance!!! It is ALL very healthy still, especially if we can hold that 50 day Moving Average!!!
And I am not talking fundamentals, I have compressed all that into 1 of 10 bullet points below...
Take a GOOD and LONG look at this visualization, then read below:
(NOTE: I know the RSI dropped below 40 around October, 2016... I meant to say the RSI never dropped below 40 since the growth spurt happened, a lot of things happened in the past differently than it does in today's AMFE... AMFE is a different company now and has passed a certain stage and is between emerging and growth now)...
Some things to take notice of (and note, I am purposefully only going out no further than the 3rd decimal place with the figures):
1.) Proportion
The larger the number the price per share is, the larger the fluctuation will be too... Look at the last consolidation period where we traded between $0.058 and $0.095 (really it was $0.0954, but again only using the up to the 3rd decimal place), yea that is only a 3.7 cent fluctuation, but it is also 38.95% drop from the $0.095 high.
Look at our current consolidation period where we have so far traded between $0.142 and $0.235... That is a 9.3 cent fluctuation vs. the previous 3.7 cent fluctuation of the last consolidation period, however given proportionate consideration to the last consolidation period, the 9.3 cent drop is only a 39.57% fall... Not too much worse for wear compared to the last consolidation period proportionately...
So it is easy to feel like we have fallen far the $0.235 high, but reality is... We have not, it only feels like it because the numbers are larger, so are the swings in fluctuations!!! This was primarily what I was trying to demonstrate with my spreadsheet "Crystal Ball" project ultimately... Only reason aside from Hurricane Irma that I stopped posting the "Crystal Ball" updates is because no consolidation period, bull run, or any other movement in the market will ever be an exact carbon copy... My "Crystal Ball" won't predict each day's action, it's ultimate designed use was to project the thresholds of the consolidation period we are in... So far it has done that fairly well!!!
2.) The Timing
Have you noticed yet that our chart Stair Steps?!?!? I hope so... This is important for many reasons... One being for technical reasons, I'll get to that one later...
If you look at the stair steps, you can notice a bit of a pattern I attempted to help you better see in my visualization above... We seem to enter our bull runs usually before the quarterly reports are released, and then we consolidate in between quarters... The obvious reason for this to me is that our quarterly reports have a lot of positivity to them, and buyers tend to buy the anticipation which is why usually we begin the bull run before the report is released, and then we consolidate shortly after its release... A quarterly report is released every 3 months, the last 3 were released:
July 30th, 2017
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/AMFE/news/Amfil-Technologies-Inc--Announces-2017-Fiscal-Year-End-Revenues-of--6-630-973-USD--Up-Almost-2400--Over-FYE-2016?id=165770&b=y
May 7th, 2017
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/AMFE/news/Amfil-Technologies-Inc--Revenues-Increased-to--1-809-064-for-Q3-2017-Posting-a-26-600--Growth-Rate-Over-Q3-2016?id=158203&b=y
January 24th, 2017
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/AMFE/news/AMFIL-TECHNOLOGIES-INC--REVENUES-INCREASED-to--1-542-389-FOR-Q2-2017-POSTING-A-4500--GROWTH-RATE-OVER-Q2-2016?id=149326&b=y
JUST LOOK THOSE OVER for a moment... What is to hate... The company is doing well!!! We are growing, profiting, increasing profitability, we have a great future outlook!!! The fundamentals are GREAT, but more on that later!!! Again, notice how the stair step pattern enters its bull runs around quarterly reporting, and then consolidates... The next quarterly report is expected in October according to this Tweet:
(From AMFE's Twitter)
and what we are expecting is included in the Tweet, and has been echoed many times since!!! So, if this quarterly report is expected in early October, then anticipate the bull run to begin late September/ early October... That isn't too far away!!!
NOTE: It is unwise for longs to flip this stock in between bull runs and during consolidation period, doing so can disrupt the chart, the pattern, the technicals, and drop the price per share severely and have a catastrophic effect on how this plays out going forward for technical reason I will get to below... Just imagine though if you will what it would look like if all the longs got out at once to flip the stock... The price per share would plummet, the pattern would break, it would affect how technical traders see our stock in future consideration, etc... If everyone sold at once, we'd all be fighting to get out through a single door, ultimately selling to the BID, dropping the price quickly, scaring new investors to get in, and creating and artificial dump... Though I would expect soon after to see it bounce since the company behind the stock is sound!!!
ALSO NOTE: At any time, a catalyst could send the share price up, and if you got out in attempt to flip this stock while that happened, you will chase the price... Again, there are many catalysts that can cause this to occur at any time!!!
3.) The Technicals
So... this is the OTC (penny market), are you surprised?!?!? I hope not!!! Here in the OTC, day/swing/ momentum traders rule this realm of the market... Most of those traders use technical data, patterns, and historic actions to determine when to invest into a stock, and most of those traders try to get in before/during the bull run, and try to get out at the end of the bull run and before the consolidation period... And because of the history this stock has, the stair step pattern, it is fairly predictable... Which benefits everyone equally while it remains such...
Technical traders will watch a stock's current performance, and compare it to how that stock reacted in previous history when certain events occur... Example, if a stock gaps upward then what does it typically do in the past when a gap occurs??? Does it dump immediately afterwards??? Does it hold the gains??? This will help a trader determine when to get in, whether to invest low and sell high, or to try and short the stock anticipating the dump...
Another example, AMFE tends to hold the 50 day Moving Average pretty well rarely ever dropping below it, and not far below or for very long when we do!!! If this pattern is one that holds and can be counted on to reoccur (highlighting the importance of no mass exodus by longs in attempt to flip the stock), a trader might consider getting in as the price per share touches the 50 day Moving Average considering that a low and expecting gains shortly after!!! If this becomes more difficult to rely on as a reoccurring pattern, then you may cease to see it repeat and the stock becomes less predictable and faces difficulty climbing in the future... That is why preserving this stock's predictability is important, let the day traders flip, longs need to hold tight and keep the foundation up!!! The more locked up we have the float, the more shares are in long term holding hands, the less you should ever see the price per share fall because once flippers jump out, the longs are who get to name their price causing the dropping price to stop falling, and allowing the price per share to go back up quickly into its next bull run!!! I believe this is what causes the stair step pattern to begin with!!!
As a long term shareholder, YOU ARE THE FOUNDATION!!! NEVERMIND the short term ups and downs in the price per share... Flippers are what mostly cause the bull runs, as they rush to get in, we ALL ride the momentum upwards... As the flippers get out we fall into a consolidation period... We consolidate while share exchange hands from those taking their profits exit, and those hoping to make profits enter... New longs are born, current longs grab more shares, and eventually the selling stops, the flippers got out, the slack in the fishing line tightens, and a rush to buy returns.... Re enter the flippers and we are off onto the next bull run... Eventually profits are taken, flippers get out, we consolidate, new longs are born, buyers get in seeking profits, and repeat... As the foundation, the more longs lock up the shares, the better we hold gains and the shorter consolidation periods last, the more time we spend in a bull run...
It is all very cyclic when predictable... Eventually the bull run loses steam, and flippers anticipate the end of it, get out, as they get out the bull run loses more steam and actually ends, then more flippers exit, we see a sharp drop, give up a fair chunk of our gains from the bull run (so far 39.57% since the last bull run), and eventually new longs buy, currently longs increase position, some take profits and get out, some remaining flippers get out after holding out for the price to go back up, some new flippers get back in and play the consolidation fluctuations, some old longs get back in, eventually we lock up and ride the next bull run again to the next consolidation period, repeat!!!
But why is it predictable??? 2 reasons!!! The company is solid, profiting, growing, great future outlook... And we have a great foundation of long term shareholders (BECAUSE the company is solid)!!! That would be the fundamentals, the fundamentals are what keeps this stock going up in value... The technicals are what drives it there, the fundamentals are what ultimately fuels it... See more below about the fundamentals...
So, we stair step, we repeat the same bull run and consolidate, run and consolidate, predictability... Further observations that can be made include things like the Moving Averages!!! Take the 50 day Moving Average, if you look at it, you'd note we only average upwards, it never down trends... This again is because of a great foundation of long term shareholders, and solid fundamentals... The price per share in the big picture is increasing, this stock is profitable and bullish... It is because the long term shareholder sit on shares, only so many shares are flipped, the flipped shares are what make the price go up and down... Only when long term shareholders get out does it create large amounts of slack in the line taking time to tighten again... If long term shareholders sit on their shares, less slack would need to be tightened before we run again, and the stronger the run will be... If enough longs get out during a bull run, it can cause the bull run to prematurely terminate, and it creates more slack for a longer consolidation period while it locks up again... The more shares belong to long, the less shares are in circulation, the less the share price can drop, and the more the share price holds or increases its value!!!
If you look at the visualization, you'll note, we never drop below a 40 RSI and you can see the peaks and valleys within the RSI oscillations... We rarely drop below the 50 day Moving Average and when we do, we don't drop far below it or for very long, and if you note the MACD, you can see the strength of our bull runs by the steepness of their slopes... If you look at the blue bar graph below the MACD lines, you'll note that you can see the reversals when the graph grow less and less negative and reverse towards becoming positive, or when they grow less and less positive and begin to reverse toward becoming negative... If you look, we are beginning to trend toward becoming more and more positive now indicating the reversal and signaling a bull run is near!!! Notice the slopes drawn at the bottom of the visualization showing that...
It is important to remember the numbers are proportional... As the price per share goes up, the cost per share goes up and it might affect the volume... Less shares might get bought because of how expensive they are and the volume drops... It is worth looking at the dollar volume and note how much money is actually being traded vs. shares traded...
Bollinger Bands are also important, but most useful for indicating when to get in and out of a stock... For AMFE purposes they highlight our consolidation periods with narrowed bands, and our bull runs with widened bands... You can even kind of say a bull run officially ends and the consolidation period begins based upon the price per share crossing from the upper band to the lower band crossing the 20 day Moving Average...
It is important to note though, that during consolidation periods, we give back full gains made during bull runs... This allows us to stair step, and average up!!! Think of it as roughly 3 steps forward, 1 step backwards in nature as of lately!!!
4.) The Fundamentals
I won't spend long discussing this... I think they speak for themselves and if you spend any times researching AMFE or on the iHub AMFE board you will see TONS of fundamentals, at this point you have probably heard them all repeatedly and can even cite them yourselves...
What I do what to discuss regarding fundamentals though is how vital fundamentals really are to a stock regardless what the share price reflects at any given time... Even in a market like the OTC ruled by day/ swing/ momentum traders largely using technical data to make their moves, fundamentals are what allows those technicals to be what they are!!!... It is again because of the fundamentals AMFE has such a foundation of long term shareholders, and because AMFE has such a foundation of long term shareholders, the patterns repeat historically, the technical data holds, and the price per share signals semi predictable buy in and sell off points (again, it is important this remains predictable and the long don't all attempt to flip this stock or the chart and technical data driving it will change and potentially adversely affect its course)...
If not for the fundamentals, the company behind the stock, the growth, profitability, and future outlook... What differs 1 stock from another aside from a meaningless 4 letter acronym or a chart that tracks day traders handing each other money?!?!? It is the fundamentals that fuel the technicals that drive the traders to invest where they do and how they do...
Twitter is only useful for those who use it, follow AMFE, and see the tweets... Think of Twitter as a place for AMFE to release information to long term shareholders and nothing more... I doubt many flipping day traders pay AMFE Twitter much attention on a regular basis, and if you don't have eyes on it, then how is it influencing anything... I'd bet most Twitter followers are current long-term shareholders...
Press releases are another topic... AMFE releases tons of news... Between Twitter and as press releases, AMFE is extremely transparent and they set a high bar of expectations... Not a ton of negative news if any at all comes from AMFE and we find ourselves easily spoiled with news... AMFE could release a shareholder update that's nothing more than an update and nothing less than good positive information or even release news of a move they are making, or a development in the works, and shareholders get up in arms because it becomes hard to impress them when AMFE is constantly setting a high bar, and releasing news often... Shareholders need to calm down and relax and realize AMFE HAS A LOT going on and business takes time... Rome was not built in a day!!! There is NO REASON to get up in arms about ANY news except bad news!!! Give AMFE a break and enjoy/appreciate the transparency... No other company out there I've seen does this!!! AMFE could just go silent and leave you guessing how things are going, hoping they are going great... I don't think people appreciate the transparency enough, it is what lets you know the company is doing well... FORGET ABOUT HOW THE SHARE PRICE IS DOING IN THE SHORT TERM IF YOU ARE A LONG TERM SHAREHOLDER!!! For God sakes, all the whining and complaining and belly aching about recent short term performance, or how "disappointing" the GOOD news is, is doing no good for your investment, or the rest of our investment... All you are doing is planting doubt in other long-term shareholder's heads, weakening the foundation, and deterring future investors from investing... How is that helpful?!?!? What benefit do you bring?!?!?!? SO WHY DO IT?!?!?!? And I am not saying sensor anything... If there is something negative worth sharing, backed by accurate and factual evidence that is relevant... THEN BY ALL MEANS, SHARE IT!!! I have no problem and even encourage for my own investment's sake that negativity is openly shared... But whining is not helpful to anyone!!! Anything you say about AMFE, put yourself into the shoes of a new investor and consider how they would perceive what you said... Why hurt yourself and your investment... If you are unhappy because you cannot be impressed, then just get out and go quietly... We are all watching our investment and we all see what you see, and probably all feel semi similarly about it when the share price drops, etc... SO WHY SAY IT?!?!?!? Water your seed, don't tear it down!!!
Otherwise you know of all the fundamentals... GroZone/Gro3 is doing great with contracts in the works, certifications, patent pending product, expanding fronts from marijuana to produce and even poultry, etc... Snakes and Lattes is doing great, expanding shop with opening a new location soon, plans to open more, plans to franchise and spread, Nintendo partnership, etc., an expanding list exclusive game distribution rights driving big profits, game publishing, etc... And you are aware of the spinoff of Interloc-Kings, the profitable but dwarfed sub by the other subs making it the "red headed step child"... The spinoff is a great resourcefulness in utilizing that which is forgotten here to grow and become something bigger elsewhere, where you can take greater risks without risking the AMFE brand, etc... And giving us dividend shares to the new company once it happens... Then there is the audit, and up listing.... Oh, and don't forget the acquisition of the new cloud based software company...
5.) The Audit and AMFE VALUATION
The audit confirms our growth and profitability... Which is good if you are having trust issues with AMFE, but more importantly the audit does something else very big for us... It updates the financial numbers used by future and current investors for determining AMFE's valuation and whether to invest or not when research as reported by financial institutions investors use to do their research...
The numbers financial institutions currently report are over 3 years old as AMFE has not had an audit in the last 3 years... So here is a picture that'll help you see the difference the audit makes for AMFE's valuation:
As you see, the 3 year old inaccurate numbers since our last audit is causing an issue with our actual valuation which is currently under the radar... We currently should be valued somewhere between $0.2238 to $0.3441 with a Market Capitalization of something between $101.6 Million to $156.2 Million...
Here is where it reflects the unaudited outstanding share count of 473.9 Million and the reduction of 20 Million to bring us to 453.9 Million:
Reference this link:
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/AMFE/news/Amfil-Technologies-Inc--Announces-2017-Fiscal-Year-End-Revenues-of--6-630-973-USD--Up-Almost-2400--Over-FYE-2016?id=165770&b=y
And
(From AMFE's Twitter)
So like a switch got flipped, our valuation will change from obsolete figures to accurate updated ones overnight once the audit is finalized and released...
6.) Up listing
Also, once the audit finalizes, we will begin the up listing process to either the OTC QB or OTC QX tier depending on how things go between now and then... This will open us to a new world of investors and allow new investors to pile in, as they do so, the share price should increase... The higher tier we enter will be more regulated, so less the games, more trusted information with audits, etc. I'd say more transparency... But AMFE is already VERY transparent!!!
7.) Dividend Shares and Spin Off
And also along with the up listing should come dividend shares as we will then finalize the spinoff of Interloc-Kings so that it too will be up listed to the higher tier of the OTC market, and once the spin off occurs, we get dividend shares at a "to be disclosed" ratio and time... Those dividend shares are meant to reimburse you the investor for the loss of Interloc-Kings to your investment, but those shares will be worth more to you than Interloc-Kings is currently worth to you because again, they are looking to build a new AMFE typed (holding/ brick and mortar) company out of Interloc-Kings... That makes it more resourceful and valuable to you instead of a dwarfed forgotten sub not helping AMFE's valuation anymore...
8.) New Cloud Based Software Company Acquisition
There is not a lot known about this, and this one is more of a guess than anything... But what if this acquisition is married with Snakes and Lattes and the franchising plans, forcing new franchise owners to utilize this software for things like book keeping, inventory, etc... Thus, they sell the software to the new franchise owners and it equals profitability to AMFE in that alone... Forward thinking if true, and it is not limited to that... But again, all a guess... All we know is something is in the works here regarding acquiring a cloud based software company....
9.) Diversification Upon diversification
AMFE is very diverse of an investment across multiple industries from games, to restaurants, to marijuana, to produce, to poultry, to (currently but about to be spun off) landscaping/ snow plowing/ contracting, to cloud based software, etc... And even each sub is diverse in itself... Snakes and Lattes has food, games both distribution and publishing... GroZone/ Gro3 has Marijuana to produce to poultry growth and sanitization...
10.) Transparency
I've said it above, but I think it is important enough to give its own bullet point too... This company is very transparent, you can call them, email them, they release tons of news and updates, you know what the future brings and it helps you feel safer here, but it is a big deal not to be left in the dark guessing!!! Like I said above, most our growth in share price is done around quarterly reporting time... You can use their transparency to predict the growth and thus the profitability onto yourself!!! Stop worrying about the short term and focus on the long term!!!
And I am not talking fundamentals, I have compressed all that into 1 of 10 bullet points below...
Take a GOOD and LONG look at this visualization, then read below:
(NOTE: I know the RSI dropped below 40 around October, 2016... I meant to say the RSI never dropped below 40 since the growth spurt happened, a lot of things happened in the past differently than it does in today's AMFE... AMFE is a different company now and has passed a certain stage and is between emerging and growth now)...
Some things to take notice of (and note, I am purposefully only going out no further than the 3rd decimal place with the figures):
1.) Proportion
The larger the number the price per share is, the larger the fluctuation will be too... Look at the last consolidation period where we traded between $0.058 and $0.095 (really it was $0.0954, but again only using the up to the 3rd decimal place), yea that is only a 3.7 cent fluctuation, but it is also 38.95% drop from the $0.095 high.
Look at our current consolidation period where we have so far traded between $0.142 and $0.235... That is a 9.3 cent fluctuation vs. the previous 3.7 cent fluctuation of the last consolidation period, however given proportionate consideration to the last consolidation period, the 9.3 cent drop is only a 39.57% fall... Not too much worse for wear compared to the last consolidation period proportionately...
So it is easy to feel like we have fallen far the $0.235 high, but reality is... We have not, it only feels like it because the numbers are larger, so are the swings in fluctuations!!! This was primarily what I was trying to demonstrate with my spreadsheet "Crystal Ball" project ultimately... Only reason aside from Hurricane Irma that I stopped posting the "Crystal Ball" updates is because no consolidation period, bull run, or any other movement in the market will ever be an exact carbon copy... My "Crystal Ball" won't predict each day's action, it's ultimate designed use was to project the thresholds of the consolidation period we are in... So far it has done that fairly well!!!
2.) The Timing
Have you noticed yet that our chart Stair Steps?!?!? I hope so... This is important for many reasons... One being for technical reasons, I'll get to that one later...
If you look at the stair steps, you can notice a bit of a pattern I attempted to help you better see in my visualization above... We seem to enter our bull runs usually before the quarterly reports are released, and then we consolidate in between quarters... The obvious reason for this to me is that our quarterly reports have a lot of positivity to them, and buyers tend to buy the anticipation which is why usually we begin the bull run before the report is released, and then we consolidate shortly after its release... A quarterly report is released every 3 months, the last 3 were released:
July 30th, 2017
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/AMFE/news/Amfil-Technologies-Inc--Announces-2017-Fiscal-Year-End-Revenues-of--6-630-973-USD--Up-Almost-2400--Over-FYE-2016?id=165770&b=y
May 7th, 2017
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/AMFE/news/Amfil-Technologies-Inc--Revenues-Increased-to--1-809-064-for-Q3-2017-Posting-a-26-600--Growth-Rate-Over-Q3-2016?id=158203&b=y
January 24th, 2017
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/AMFE/news/AMFIL-TECHNOLOGIES-INC--REVENUES-INCREASED-to--1-542-389-FOR-Q2-2017-POSTING-A-4500--GROWTH-RATE-OVER-Q2-2016?id=149326&b=y
JUST LOOK THOSE OVER for a moment... What is to hate... The company is doing well!!! We are growing, profiting, increasing profitability, we have a great future outlook!!! The fundamentals are GREAT, but more on that later!!! Again, notice how the stair step pattern enters its bull runs around quarterly reporting, and then consolidates... The next quarterly report is expected in October according to this Tweet:
(From AMFE's Twitter)
and what we are expecting is included in the Tweet, and has been echoed many times since!!! So, if this quarterly report is expected in early October, then anticipate the bull run to begin late September/ early October... That isn't too far away!!!
NOTE: It is unwise for longs to flip this stock in between bull runs and during consolidation period, doing so can disrupt the chart, the pattern, the technicals, and drop the price per share severely and have a catastrophic effect on how this plays out going forward for technical reason I will get to below... Just imagine though if you will what it would look like if all the longs got out at once to flip the stock... The price per share would plummet, the pattern would break, it would affect how technical traders see our stock in future consideration, etc... If everyone sold at once, we'd all be fighting to get out through a single door, ultimately selling to the BID, dropping the price quickly, scaring new investors to get in, and creating and artificial dump... Though I would expect soon after to see it bounce since the company behind the stock is sound!!!
ALSO NOTE: At any time, a catalyst could send the share price up, and if you got out in attempt to flip this stock while that happened, you will chase the price... Again, there are many catalysts that can cause this to occur at any time!!!
3.) The Technicals
So... this is the OTC (penny market), are you surprised?!?!? I hope not!!! Here in the OTC, day/swing/ momentum traders rule this realm of the market... Most of those traders use technical data, patterns, and historic actions to determine when to invest into a stock, and most of those traders try to get in before/during the bull run, and try to get out at the end of the bull run and before the consolidation period... And because of the history this stock has, the stair step pattern, it is fairly predictable... Which benefits everyone equally while it remains such...
Technical traders will watch a stock's current performance, and compare it to how that stock reacted in previous history when certain events occur... Example, if a stock gaps upward then what does it typically do in the past when a gap occurs??? Does it dump immediately afterwards??? Does it hold the gains??? This will help a trader determine when to get in, whether to invest low and sell high, or to try and short the stock anticipating the dump...
Another example, AMFE tends to hold the 50 day Moving Average pretty well rarely ever dropping below it, and not far below or for very long when we do!!! If this pattern is one that holds and can be counted on to reoccur (highlighting the importance of no mass exodus by longs in attempt to flip the stock), a trader might consider getting in as the price per share touches the 50 day Moving Average considering that a low and expecting gains shortly after!!! If this becomes more difficult to rely on as a reoccurring pattern, then you may cease to see it repeat and the stock becomes less predictable and faces difficulty climbing in the future... That is why preserving this stock's predictability is important, let the day traders flip, longs need to hold tight and keep the foundation up!!! The more locked up we have the float, the more shares are in long term holding hands, the less you should ever see the price per share fall because once flippers jump out, the longs are who get to name their price causing the dropping price to stop falling, and allowing the price per share to go back up quickly into its next bull run!!! I believe this is what causes the stair step pattern to begin with!!!
As a long term shareholder, YOU ARE THE FOUNDATION!!! NEVERMIND the short term ups and downs in the price per share... Flippers are what mostly cause the bull runs, as they rush to get in, we ALL ride the momentum upwards... As the flippers get out we fall into a consolidation period... We consolidate while share exchange hands from those taking their profits exit, and those hoping to make profits enter... New longs are born, current longs grab more shares, and eventually the selling stops, the flippers got out, the slack in the fishing line tightens, and a rush to buy returns.... Re enter the flippers and we are off onto the next bull run... Eventually profits are taken, flippers get out, we consolidate, new longs are born, buyers get in seeking profits, and repeat... As the foundation, the more longs lock up the shares, the better we hold gains and the shorter consolidation periods last, the more time we spend in a bull run...
It is all very cyclic when predictable... Eventually the bull run loses steam, and flippers anticipate the end of it, get out, as they get out the bull run loses more steam and actually ends, then more flippers exit, we see a sharp drop, give up a fair chunk of our gains from the bull run (so far 39.57% since the last bull run), and eventually new longs buy, currently longs increase position, some take profits and get out, some remaining flippers get out after holding out for the price to go back up, some new flippers get back in and play the consolidation fluctuations, some old longs get back in, eventually we lock up and ride the next bull run again to the next consolidation period, repeat!!!
But why is it predictable??? 2 reasons!!! The company is solid, profiting, growing, great future outlook... And we have a great foundation of long term shareholders (BECAUSE the company is solid)!!! That would be the fundamentals, the fundamentals are what keeps this stock going up in value... The technicals are what drives it there, the fundamentals are what ultimately fuels it... See more below about the fundamentals...
So, we stair step, we repeat the same bull run and consolidate, run and consolidate, predictability... Further observations that can be made include things like the Moving Averages!!! Take the 50 day Moving Average, if you look at it, you'd note we only average upwards, it never down trends... This again is because of a great foundation of long term shareholders, and solid fundamentals... The price per share in the big picture is increasing, this stock is profitable and bullish... It is because the long term shareholder sit on shares, only so many shares are flipped, the flipped shares are what make the price go up and down... Only when long term shareholders get out does it create large amounts of slack in the line taking time to tighten again... If long term shareholders sit on their shares, less slack would need to be tightened before we run again, and the stronger the run will be... If enough longs get out during a bull run, it can cause the bull run to prematurely terminate, and it creates more slack for a longer consolidation period while it locks up again... The more shares belong to long, the less shares are in circulation, the less the share price can drop, and the more the share price holds or increases its value!!!
If you look at the visualization, you'll note, we never drop below a 40 RSI and you can see the peaks and valleys within the RSI oscillations... We rarely drop below the 50 day Moving Average and when we do, we don't drop far below it or for very long, and if you note the MACD, you can see the strength of our bull runs by the steepness of their slopes... If you look at the blue bar graph below the MACD lines, you'll note that you can see the reversals when the graph grow less and less negative and reverse towards becoming positive, or when they grow less and less positive and begin to reverse toward becoming negative... If you look, we are beginning to trend toward becoming more and more positive now indicating the reversal and signaling a bull run is near!!! Notice the slopes drawn at the bottom of the visualization showing that...
It is important to remember the numbers are proportional... As the price per share goes up, the cost per share goes up and it might affect the volume... Less shares might get bought because of how expensive they are and the volume drops... It is worth looking at the dollar volume and note how much money is actually being traded vs. shares traded...
Bollinger Bands are also important, but most useful for indicating when to get in and out of a stock... For AMFE purposes they highlight our consolidation periods with narrowed bands, and our bull runs with widened bands... You can even kind of say a bull run officially ends and the consolidation period begins based upon the price per share crossing from the upper band to the lower band crossing the 20 day Moving Average...
It is important to note though, that during consolidation periods, we give back full gains made during bull runs... This allows us to stair step, and average up!!! Think of it as roughly 3 steps forward, 1 step backwards in nature as of lately!!!
4.) The Fundamentals
I won't spend long discussing this... I think they speak for themselves and if you spend any times researching AMFE or on the iHub AMFE board you will see TONS of fundamentals, at this point you have probably heard them all repeatedly and can even cite them yourselves...
What I do what to discuss regarding fundamentals though is how vital fundamentals really are to a stock regardless what the share price reflects at any given time... Even in a market like the OTC ruled by day/ swing/ momentum traders largely using technical data to make their moves, fundamentals are what allows those technicals to be what they are!!!... It is again because of the fundamentals AMFE has such a foundation of long term shareholders, and because AMFE has such a foundation of long term shareholders, the patterns repeat historically, the technical data holds, and the price per share signals semi predictable buy in and sell off points (again, it is important this remains predictable and the long don't all attempt to flip this stock or the chart and technical data driving it will change and potentially adversely affect its course)...
If not for the fundamentals, the company behind the stock, the growth, profitability, and future outlook... What differs 1 stock from another aside from a meaningless 4 letter acronym or a chart that tracks day traders handing each other money?!?!? It is the fundamentals that fuel the technicals that drive the traders to invest where they do and how they do...
Twitter is only useful for those who use it, follow AMFE, and see the tweets... Think of Twitter as a place for AMFE to release information to long term shareholders and nothing more... I doubt many flipping day traders pay AMFE Twitter much attention on a regular basis, and if you don't have eyes on it, then how is it influencing anything... I'd bet most Twitter followers are current long-term shareholders...
Press releases are another topic... AMFE releases tons of news... Between Twitter and as press releases, AMFE is extremely transparent and they set a high bar of expectations... Not a ton of negative news if any at all comes from AMFE and we find ourselves easily spoiled with news... AMFE could release a shareholder update that's nothing more than an update and nothing less than good positive information or even release news of a move they are making, or a development in the works, and shareholders get up in arms because it becomes hard to impress them when AMFE is constantly setting a high bar, and releasing news often... Shareholders need to calm down and relax and realize AMFE HAS A LOT going on and business takes time... Rome was not built in a day!!! There is NO REASON to get up in arms about ANY news except bad news!!! Give AMFE a break and enjoy/appreciate the transparency... No other company out there I've seen does this!!! AMFE could just go silent and leave you guessing how things are going, hoping they are going great... I don't think people appreciate the transparency enough, it is what lets you know the company is doing well... FORGET ABOUT HOW THE SHARE PRICE IS DOING IN THE SHORT TERM IF YOU ARE A LONG TERM SHAREHOLDER!!! For God sakes, all the whining and complaining and belly aching about recent short term performance, or how "disappointing" the GOOD news is, is doing no good for your investment, or the rest of our investment... All you are doing is planting doubt in other long-term shareholder's heads, weakening the foundation, and deterring future investors from investing... How is that helpful?!?!? What benefit do you bring?!?!?!? SO WHY DO IT?!?!?!? And I am not saying sensor anything... If there is something negative worth sharing, backed by accurate and factual evidence that is relevant... THEN BY ALL MEANS, SHARE IT!!! I have no problem and even encourage for my own investment's sake that negativity is openly shared... But whining is not helpful to anyone!!! Anything you say about AMFE, put yourself into the shoes of a new investor and consider how they would perceive what you said... Why hurt yourself and your investment... If you are unhappy because you cannot be impressed, then just get out and go quietly... We are all watching our investment and we all see what you see, and probably all feel semi similarly about it when the share price drops, etc... SO WHY SAY IT?!?!?!? Water your seed, don't tear it down!!!
Otherwise you know of all the fundamentals... GroZone/Gro3 is doing great with contracts in the works, certifications, patent pending product, expanding fronts from marijuana to produce and even poultry, etc... Snakes and Lattes is doing great, expanding shop with opening a new location soon, plans to open more, plans to franchise and spread, Nintendo partnership, etc., an expanding list exclusive game distribution rights driving big profits, game publishing, etc... And you are aware of the spinoff of Interloc-Kings, the profitable but dwarfed sub by the other subs making it the "red headed step child"... The spinoff is a great resourcefulness in utilizing that which is forgotten here to grow and become something bigger elsewhere, where you can take greater risks without risking the AMFE brand, etc... And giving us dividend shares to the new company once it happens... Then there is the audit, and up listing.... Oh, and don't forget the acquisition of the new cloud based software company...
5.) The Audit and AMFE VALUATION
The audit confirms our growth and profitability... Which is good if you are having trust issues with AMFE, but more importantly the audit does something else very big for us... It updates the financial numbers used by future and current investors for determining AMFE's valuation and whether to invest or not when research as reported by financial institutions investors use to do their research...
The numbers financial institutions currently report are over 3 years old as AMFE has not had an audit in the last 3 years... So here is a picture that'll help you see the difference the audit makes for AMFE's valuation:
As you see, the 3 year old inaccurate numbers since our last audit is causing an issue with our actual valuation which is currently under the radar... We currently should be valued somewhere between $0.2238 to $0.3441 with a Market Capitalization of something between $101.6 Million to $156.2 Million...
Here is where it reflects the unaudited outstanding share count of 473.9 Million and the reduction of 20 Million to bring us to 453.9 Million:
Reference this link:
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/AMFE/news/Amfil-Technologies-Inc--Announces-2017-Fiscal-Year-End-Revenues-of--6-630-973-USD--Up-Almost-2400--Over-FYE-2016?id=165770&b=y
And
(From AMFE's Twitter)
So like a switch got flipped, our valuation will change from obsolete figures to accurate updated ones overnight once the audit is finalized and released...
6.) Up listing
Also, once the audit finalizes, we will begin the up listing process to either the OTC QB or OTC QX tier depending on how things go between now and then... This will open us to a new world of investors and allow new investors to pile in, as they do so, the share price should increase... The higher tier we enter will be more regulated, so less the games, more trusted information with audits, etc. I'd say more transparency... But AMFE is already VERY transparent!!!
7.) Dividend Shares and Spin Off
And also along with the up listing should come dividend shares as we will then finalize the spinoff of Interloc-Kings so that it too will be up listed to the higher tier of the OTC market, and once the spin off occurs, we get dividend shares at a "to be disclosed" ratio and time... Those dividend shares are meant to reimburse you the investor for the loss of Interloc-Kings to your investment, but those shares will be worth more to you than Interloc-Kings is currently worth to you because again, they are looking to build a new AMFE typed (holding/ brick and mortar) company out of Interloc-Kings... That makes it more resourceful and valuable to you instead of a dwarfed forgotten sub not helping AMFE's valuation anymore...
8.) New Cloud Based Software Company Acquisition
There is not a lot known about this, and this one is more of a guess than anything... But what if this acquisition is married with Snakes and Lattes and the franchising plans, forcing new franchise owners to utilize this software for things like book keeping, inventory, etc... Thus, they sell the software to the new franchise owners and it equals profitability to AMFE in that alone... Forward thinking if true, and it is not limited to that... But again, all a guess... All we know is something is in the works here regarding acquiring a cloud based software company....
9.) Diversification Upon diversification
AMFE is very diverse of an investment across multiple industries from games, to restaurants, to marijuana, to produce, to poultry, to (currently but about to be spun off) landscaping/ snow plowing/ contracting, to cloud based software, etc... And even each sub is diverse in itself... Snakes and Lattes has food, games both distribution and publishing... GroZone/ Gro3 has Marijuana to produce to poultry growth and sanitization...
10.) Transparency
I've said it above, but I think it is important enough to give its own bullet point too... This company is very transparent, you can call them, email them, they release tons of news and updates, you know what the future brings and it helps you feel safer here, but it is a big deal not to be left in the dark guessing!!! Like I said above, most our growth in share price is done around quarterly reporting time... You can use their transparency to predict the growth and thus the profitability onto yourself!!! Stop worrying about the short term and focus on the long term!!!
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