Cempra, Inc. (CEMP)

[agamemnus]

Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence, but it's hard to tell just how much lying is going on. They DID submit a 2K patient safety study and it was turned down by the FDA. If you see BARDA fund a part of the safety study, the stock should explode.

I really cannot trust Cempra's analysis one way or the other. According to Japan's public clinicaltrials site, there are three soli trials, but Cempra keeps saying one CABP and doesn't mention the others. And how many patients will it enroll? No one (at least investors) know. Half of those patients can be added to the safety study. Maybe even you could add patients from the non-CABP studies because after all the FDA did count people from different studies to the current overall database.

Let's say there are in total 1.2K patients being treated in all 3 studies. So that reduces the sum by 20%. Assuming you trust the 75m figure, then that is 60m. And BARDA already committed more than this on the pediatric program -- $68.2m. I don't know if they'll foot the bill 100%, but maybe half-way. Then get Menarini to pay the other half for a contract. They are already paying for half of the CABP Baxdela trial, which maybe costs something like $20-$25m.

It's totally do-able.

About the salespeople: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1461993/000119312517281202/g438060ex99_1s11g1.jpg -- sales force to expand based on adoption. A smart build-out strategy.