Morning Nidan, while I'm somewhat perplexed as to why a p/r announcing the Monday/tues conference wasn't put out on Friday, my OPINION and GUESS is that a p/r would assumably come out Monday morning announcing Rett start and/or pk/pd data analysis and (one could assume) a development re the MS indication.
My estimation from 1 to 10 possibility? I'll give it an 82.3% chance. (14 factors positive out of 17 total factors; proprietary (crude) system I came up with this morning).
I'll say $15/sh with an MS partnership, with continued strength into year end. If it's only a Rett trial start and some Ariana pk/pd analysis I'll say $8/share.
My simpleton mind primarily just focuses however on the below conjecture:
a) they've held back on data releases for assumably and logically only positive reasons. It's going on 6 months since they pulled that 15 month results abstract (positively worded by the way); seriously, if results went south and they kept that hidden for the last six months, then I'd like to know whose harebrained idea that was? Talk about a self inflicted wound. In fact, it's really not even fair to speculate that our well respected and highly intelligent CEO/BOD/SAB/Legal Team would consider that tack. Especially since they just had a new SAB join in July and his p/r 6 weeks ago continued the positive narrative for all of us to consume and enjoy.]
b) Dr M has been making insider purchases for a month (which is obviously a STRONG indication of internal confidence in their results thus far; he'd be absolutely lambasted and roundly rebuked IF he had withheld long-awaited 15/18 month results AND then did this month long insider purchase program for the world to see and digest IF it turns out there was really nothing positive behind the curtain and IF the compound wasn't illustrating cognitive benefits well in excess of current SOC); and
c) of course they've had to wait until September to obtain new FDA trial protocols and procedures; and
d) new hire from FDA Dr Fadiran likely needed these last 4 months to obtain the 18 month results and Ariana analysis and develop various trial designs with FDA (and possibly work on FT/BT/AA designations and applications), and
e) it would be flabbergasting for them to voluntarily add MS to the CNS Partnering Conf abstract if they had literally nothing new to report re that indication. Couldn't they fill up their time slot with talk of Rett Syndrome and Parkinson's Disease and/or the MOA/ concept of cellular homeostasis and/or their Alzheimer's trial participants quality of life improvements etc WITHOUT having to kill some time rambling about an MS indication with no new developments or positive testing results in that arena? It reeks of absurdity if they were to bring up MS with nothing new & positive. Either they know MS testing is going well or it isn't. If it's not going well then they wouldn't bring it up voluntarily. Therefore, isn't the flip side logical to assume?
Sure there are potential negatives too; hence my estimate is not 100%!! This is a very small company that does not have the power or funds to have a protracted battle with those in current control of the CNS space, WE WILL NEED SOME HELP to stay in the game and stay independent.
Also it's somewhat concerning to me that our market cap has been able to be kept so low. Is there something that "the market" players know that we don't know, which would cause such a low valuation?
OR is that simply because (relatively) no one is interested in selling down here? And/or new buyers are worried about the lack of released results and general uncertainties of small biotech? Hence essentially no volume down here.
If none of the insiders nor current institutional holders nor the large portion of retailers are interested in selling then it's perhaps explainable that low volume equals no appreciable SP increase UNTIL that binary event occurs (this upcoming week? BP finally gives the proverbial tip of the cap towards our efficacy signals and results by virtue of a partnership for MS? Could happen.)
Ultimately if the compound(s) show strong efficacy (which seems logical in light of many factors) then it'll be just a matter of TIME before we feel the CNS landscape tremble then shake.
Apologies for the long post. All should do their own DD. GLTAL
