NY Crude Oil Futures Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | September 9, 2017
Analysis for the Week of September 11, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Sep. 8, 2017: Our immediate trend model is bearish . Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 4928, 4750 4911, . Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 4729. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 5043 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 5043 to 4558. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
NY Crude Oil Futures closing today of 4748 so far is trading down about 11% for the year from last year's closing of 5372. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 4727 following the high established Wed. Sep. 6, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish 4898. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 4715
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 31st at 5043, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of August 28th, which has been a move of 7.96% percent. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 2 months.
Critical support still underlies this market at 4357 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Systematically, my long-term study recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Crude Oil Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Crude Oil Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 5451 and 2605. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2016 which was a 8 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2016, this market has bounced so far this year, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 5451 to 2605. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2018 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new lows unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the decline as far out as 2021.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 3210 on an annual closing basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 14727 major high established back in 2008.
On the subject of the immediate momentum is Neutral on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of August 28th's low. Some caution is warranted given the fact that last month closed lower. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 5451. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, the last week of 9/4 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. For now, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 11 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th. The last high on the weekly level was 5043, which was created during the week of July 31st. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Addressing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 7 months. The last high on the monthly level was 5524, which was created during January. The last monthly level low was 4205, which formed during June. However, we still remain above key support 4663 on a closing basis.
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