Alon USA Partners, LP (ALDW)

[jugs]

Looking at Yahoo! analyst sentiments I find the consensus expects earnings at 45¢ or 22% higher than the last quarter. This plus Harvey impact tells me to expect 60-70 cents for the current quarter.

The yield would be 23%, way too high for the market to bear. That tell us units would need to climb to $31 to bring the yield and valuation into more normal balance. We're now talking about 8.5% for a yield.

Even 45¢ works out to a yield of greater than 16% so upward driving of the unit value is sure to occur, next month for certain. Bringing things into balance I find a valuation of about $22/unit would hand us a yield of around 8.25%.

If units drop back to $10 I will probably add. I now hold 23,315 units with a cost basis just above $8.

As things move higher I'll shift into high as we sort things out together to maximize opportunities.

Happy hunting!