Ongoing Risk/Reward Analysis, Future Options
Yes, no one should (nor probably does) jeopardize normal family budget or retirement funds with a position in AVXl. Risky, il-advised. Risk only whatever purely discretionary funds one might have. Far greater odds than playing the lottery.
With Anavex, I’ve done that, taken my position with some funds I inherited. My family budget is not jeopardized. Presently, I have a small portfolio of AVXLs which are, on the basis of known facts and factors, likely to be nicely rewarding a few years.
But if the three up-coming Anavex 2-73 clinical trials fail, and Anavex Life Sciences Corp goes bust, my family finances will be essentially unchanged. If FDA approves the drug for any one of the three diseases, my family will have a few nice things in coming years.
I monitor my risks with Anavex each day. They have not grown at all. They are inverse to the share price.
But if and when that begins to ascend, I will even more closely monitor the events and information that might clearly have caused the share price ascent. With that, I’ve retained, or will have then available, a few funds with which to take an options position on Ananvex shares, payable at a future strike price, some many months or years away.
I know better than to ever take an AVXL position on margin (borrow funds to buy, hoping to be able to sell at a much higher price later).
Anavex IS a small pharmaceutical start-up. As has been pointed out by others (a few in particular), the success record of such companies is abysmal. Not something to plan one’s family finances or retirement on.
But many investment advisories state that when one is confidently positioned financially, with solid income sources, it is not unwise to designate a small fraction, no more than 5% of that (AFTER all other financial obligations have been covered, or known to be covered in the future) to be invested in yet-unproved speculations such as Anavex.
When doing so, invest wisely and carefully. There are thousands of equities we retail share holders can buy. Do the due... due diligence (“DD” for those who use only their thumbs). Educate yourself about whatever speculative stock you might consider. Make sure it’s not just a story, that although few or no revenues are coming to the company, the prospects for such are solid—as so clearly is the case here with Anavex.
And yes, I’ve posted some pretty monstrous forecasts of Anavex revenues and potential share prices. Those are unrelated to any of the above. My AVXL position has remained small. If any of those prognostications come true, I’ll be handsomely rewarded. On the basis of Anavex science and the global medical needs it will accommodate, my projections are not out of the question. Let’s watch how it all works out. Results from the 3-month Rett trial should be out at the very end of this year, or sometime first quarter next. With those data, the real Anavex story begins. Today, we are still looking at only short movie trailers, short scene clips of a series of Anavex films to play out, full length on computer screens across the world next year.
We have prime seats in the theater. I’ll be warming my popcorn. An occasional adult beverage will be enjoyed, too.
Best wishes to all who are following the Anavex story. It's a good one.
