>>> S&P 500 Index Cash Analysis <<< By: Marty Armstrong | September 2, 2017
Analysis for the Week of September 4, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Sep. 1, 2017: The market is in a bullish posture near-term suggesting it is holding trading above the December 2016 high. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 248040 and 247657. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 247387 and 247444. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come November in S&P 500 Cash Index so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 249087 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 249087 to 241735. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 247655 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's closing of 223883. So far, we have been trading up for the past 3 days since the reaction low made on Tue. Aug. 29, 2017, but the key low was made 9 days ago on Mon. Aug. 21, 2017 at 241735.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish reflecting support forming at 246538. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is neutral providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 7th at 249087, which was up 40 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of August 21st, which has been a move of 2.56% percent. Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 14 months since the low established back in June 2016.
Critical support still underlies this market at 232894 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Overall, my far-reaching analysis recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in February 2016 has been a long-term Bullish trend in S&P 500 Cash Index. This trend remain in motion as long as we hold above 203360 on a monthly closing basis. It is incredibly important to identify the broader trend for that is the underlying tone. It is wise to take position counter-trend only with this understanding of what you are doing.
Consequently, this has been a 1 year rally in motion since 2016. Caution is advisable since this is also 8 years up from the low of given that was the major low 2009. We must pay attention to the closing for this year. If we close lower at year end, beneath 223883, then we can see a pause in the uptrend into next year. Penetrating intraday last year's low of 181010 will confirm a serious correction into next year. However, we have rallied to exceed last year's high last month. We need to see a closing above 227753 at year-end to see a continued rally is possible into next year. Exceeding this year's high next year and holding last year's low intraday will signal the bullish trend is still intact. A breach of last year's low of 181010 intraday will negate that outcome.
Looking at the longer term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2019, 2023 and 2026. There is a likelihood of a decline moving into 2019 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2023. This pattern becomes a possibility if last year's low of 181010 is penetrated even intraday. The most critical model, the Directional Change Model targets are during 2023 and during 2024. This model often picks the high or low, but can also elect a breakout to a new higher trading zone or a breakdown to a new lower trading level. Concentrating on the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January 2025. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only volatility.
Looking at the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of August 21st's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 227753. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, last month was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 43 weeks. The last weekly level low was 208379, which formed during the week of October 31st. The last high on the weekly level was 249087, which was created during the week of August 7th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 18 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016. The last high on the monthly level was 249087, which was created during August.
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