Monday, August 28, 2017 12:15:58 AM
A VERY in depth look at AMFE's behavior...
Let's compare notes here...
PREVIOUS Consolidation Period
You see that previously we ranged from a low of $0.058 to the then 52 week high of $0.0954... We bounced around inside this consolidation period for 49 days (May 2nd, 2017 to July 11th, 2017), we went up, we went down, up, down, aimlessly moving whichever way the wind blew for really no given reason at all... AMFE was Tweeting away then too, and people always predicted we'd go up, and people shared concern when we didn't... Some claimed we always closed in the red when news was released, etc...
During the PREVIOUS consolidation period we hugged an average price of $0.0785... Even when we had days we fell as low as $0.058, or days we were as high as $0.0954, we AVERAGED a price of $0.0785... And I realize we never really touched the 52 week high except at the end of the previous bull run/ beginning of this consolidation period...
CURRENT Consolidation Period
Here you'll see that currently we ranged from a low of $0.165 to the current 52 week high of $0.2350... We have so far bounced around inside this consolidation period for 12 days (August 10th, 2017 to present), we again went up, we went down, up, down, aimlessly moving whichever way the wind blew for really no given reason at all... AMFE has still been Tweeting away now too, and people again always predict we'll go up, and people shared concern when we didn't... Some still even claim we always closed in the red when news is released, etc...
During the CURRENT consolidation period we hug an average price of $0.1902.... Even when we had days we fell as low as $0.1650, or days we were as high as $0.2350, we AVERAGED a price of $0.1902... And I realize we never really touched the 52 week high except at the end of the bull run/ beginning of this consolidation period...
NOTE:
Some may argue that the current consolidation period really began August 1st, 2017, and I use to be one of those... But if you REALLY drill down you'll see a few indication that indicate that is not true...
Note this picture:
1.) We gapped on July 31st, 2017 and the red days following that gap I believe were directly related to the gap itself... 2.) If you look at the RSI around August 1st, 2017 you'll note it is still above 70, and there was still another period of time after August 1st, 2017 between August 3rd, 2017 and August 10th, 2017 where the RSI increased above 70 and even 80 again before finally cooling off into the consolidation period RSI as observed before at the beginning of the previous consolidation period on May 2nd, 2017... 3.) If you observe the MACD lines, you'll also note around August 1st, 2017 that the black MACD line was still on the rise and above the red MACD line... It wasn't until August 10th, 2017 that the black MACD began to drop and fall towards and eventually into and below the red MACD line... Again, comparable even occurred at the beginning of the last consolidation period that began May 2nd, 2017... 4.) We didn't really abandon the upper Bollinger Band until August 10th, 2017 making all that was happening prior to then part of the last bull run, it wasn't until we began to fall away from the upper Bollinger Band and towards the 20 day Moving Average and even to the lower Bolinger Band that I considered the bull run terminated... Ultimately a consolidation period stays between a price range forming a tight Bollinger Band structure that straddles an average price, with Bolliner Bands most use the 20 day Moving Average, so during a consolidation period you'd say the share price generally hugs the 20 day Moving Average... It begins falling away from the upper Bollinger Band, falls to the lower one, bounces off of it, and then hugs the 20 day Moving Average... Just like it did beginning May 2nd, 2017... THIS IS WHY I consider August 10th to be the beginning of the current consolidation period, and I consider everything prior to it after July 11th, 2017 to be the entirety of the last bull run... So the gap on July 31st, 2017 and the 2 red days after which fell as low as $0.145 were not apart of the consolidation period... But the fall to $0.145 does show a floor in support, and supports the fact I believe the floor of the current consolidation period to around that area... More to come in a bit about why else I think $0.145 is roughly the floor of this consolidation period...
One final thing I want to note before moving on here is that during the previous bull run before the previous consolidation period, on April 26th, 2017 AMFE dipped to a low of $0.06 which set a floor (roughly) for the previous consolidation period though that dip on April 26th, 2017 was part of the bull run and not the actual consolidation period that didn't begin until May 2nd, 2017, it just pointed out the floor of the support... During the consolidation period, that floor was tested, and barely broken into... So again, like then, I think $0.145 will be a key point that'll be tested during the current consolidation period...
Moving on...
Proportionate Comparison
So... I drew up a way to compare then to now... I took all of the previous consolidation numbers (indicated in red font) and divided them into all the numbers of the current consolidation period (indicated in blue font), and came up with a ratio for each set of numbers (green font)... Then I took all the ratios, and averaged them into a single average ratio which indicates the proportionate variance between then to now...
In this image below, you will see those numbers:
After I did this, I found that we are currently trading 2.51 times roughly now then that of where we were before during the last consolidation period... So out swings will be larger now in proportion, as will our highs, our lows, etc. Again, as of now, 2.51 is the ratio I am working with, though it is fluid as fluctuations in the current consolidation period do play into the math changing the averages in the the blue font of the picture above, which directly impacts all the green font...
So now that I have a ratio to work with, I took all of the previous consolidation period numbers, multiplied them by my ratio of 2.51, and came up with hypothetical numbers that loosely predict how this current consolidation period may behave... And so far, it is doing so fairly well...
Key milestones of the last consolidation period were:
$0.058 (the bottom of the last consolidation range), $0.06, $0.065, $0.07, $0.075, $0.08, $0.085, $0.09, and lastly $0.0954 (the top of the last consolidation period)... So I too all of these numbers and I multiplied them by my 2.51 ratio and got:
$0.058 x 2.51 = $0.1456
$0.06 x 2.51 = $0.1506
$0.065 x 2.51 = $0.1631
$0.07 x 2.51 = $0.1757
$0.075 x 2.51 = $0.1882
$0.08 x 2.51 = $0.2008
$0.085 x 2.51 = $0.2133
$0.09 x 2.51 = $0.2259
$0.0954 x 2.51 = $0.2394
Again, all these numbers are rough figures, but note how well the actually play out what we've seen so far... For starters, remember above where I called $0.145 the floor of the current consolidation period... Well, these figures roughly agree with that... And while we didn't touch a high of $0.2394 like the figures above would call the top of our consolidation range, we did get close at $0.235... And AGAIN, these numbers are still fluid and changing... Until AMFE begins to turn back up towards the 20 day Moving Average it'll hug during the consolidation period (turning up from the lower Bollinger Band it currently challenges) these numbers are still settling... But the are a good rough approximation to go off of...
And as the picture above shows, as of right now, the actual Average price of AMFE since August 10th to present is $0.1902, and the approximate numbers based off the ratio of 12 days into the last consolidation period multiplied by the 2.51 ratio says the average should be roughly $0.1969... Pretty close, considering it is a rough approximation and the numbers are still settling into more accurate figures... Also, the current price per share of $0.1673 would equate to the proportionate price of $0.0667 if it were within the last consolidation period...
Hypotheticals vs. Reality
So, then I decided to REALLY compare these hypothetical figures predicting the consolidation period movements to those of the actual current consolidation period and it shows that all and all, the figures are not too far off...
Compare these next 4 pictures... The first 2 you've seen already above, the red is the previous consolidation period, the blue is the current consolidation period... But the yellow picture shows what the numbers would be if you take all the numbers in the red picture of the previous consolidation period, and multiplied them by the 2.51 ratio, painting a hypothetical picture where we "should be" if this current consolidation period followed similar patterns as the last...
And the grey picture just shows how far off the hypothetical figures of he yellow picture is from the actual reality figures of the blue picture... This picture basically shows you how accurate this whole concept is, and if you look at it.... It's been fairly accurate considering everything is fluid, approximations, based on moving numbers that are again still settling... Take a look:
The AMFE Tweets do NOT look fake
Tweets are genuine, we're just spoiled... AMFE Tweets more often than your typical company, and keeps us updated... AMFE also sets the bar high, so good news or general shareholder news fails to "WOW" sometimes... However NONE of the news is bad, no reason to call it fake either... And your general investor is not paying attention to Tweets that closely, or if they are, Tweets are less of a concern than general fundamentals like press releases from the OTC Markets page, etc... I cannot wrap my head around why this would call a sell off, there is literally nothing negative here... You claim it is hype to pump the stock, but the information is genuine, it isn't false... Are you saying AMFE is pumping truth to cause their share price to go up?!?!? I fail to see how truth is bad when what you read is good news... I concede it might fail to "WOW" people, but fine.... Even if that does cause a sell off (which the volume isn't exactly indicating a sell off), shares are falling into new investors hands... The company is still profiting, still running on all cylinders, the fundamentals are still solid... The sense of reality here is, the farther AMFE falls, the more of a deal the share price is to get in at, and that is because the company behind the share price is doing great... The truth is, profiting companies do NOT go broke... without reasonable explanation for the share price to drop, means it should eventually return again... It isn't like AMFE filed for bankruptcy, or is being pursued legally (law suit, fines, etc.)... There is nothing negative about AMFE aside from a perception some are trying to paint upon it because "they Tweet too much"... If AMFE dropped to $0.0001 tomorrow, given the fundamentals, I would buy in on that in a heart beat because it would quickly turn it back around and go up... If you are here long term, AMFE's behavior is of no concern right now... Only those trying to play the technicals or not aware of what they are looking at are the ones getting flustered... I just went into great detail above why AMFE is not doing anything abnormal as of this point in time... You claim it'll fall to $0.14's, and I said "sure, it might.... So?"... Get in while the getting in is cheap then!!! Fundamentally, this stock is going up...
I'll concede to you that the OTC is primarily controlled by TA players and day traders... this is why we'll consolidate more often than your typical blue chip company... But the valuation of the company is still positive... If everyone got out from underneath a succeeding company, others will eventually jump in to support it, because the company is succeeding... You are describing short term concerns... None of this matters... Simply put, if the share price goes down without merit and the company is profiting, healthy, and successful, then the share price is going back up eventually!!! The lower the share price goes, the better the deal is to get in, the more buyers will come... Hence why our chart looks the way it does... Looking at the 50 day and larger Moving Averages, we NEVER down trend... We bull run, consolidate, bull run, consolidate, etc... Notice a pattern.... That's because the fundamentals are solid!!! This isn't a company that is struggling... The chart looks BEAUTIFUL!!!
Any seller who sells, passes shares off to a buyer who buys, and the buyer hopes to also turn a profit... So when a shareholder cashes out, who cares... A new investor enters looking to make money too... THAT IS WHAT MAKES A CONSOLIDATION PERIOD WHAT IT IS!!! We'll eventually hit $0.25, Rome wasn't built over night... You can tell we are spoiled here... As mentioned above, my ratio was 2.51, which means we are currently trading 251% higher today than mere weeks/ months ago... And people are upset?!?!? lol... Really???
FUNDAMENTALS MEAN EVERYTHING!!! Know what you own!!!
You claim the outstanding shares are bloated.... But are they?!?!? I don't think they are... In fact, once the audit is released, I think the share price will jump because like a switch got flipped, numbers financial institutions report will change literally over night...
Currently financial institutions (TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, Yahoo News, etc.) report AMFE as having 664.5 Million outstanding shares...
But that is not accurate as that number is 3 years old taken from the last audit AMFE had 3 years ago... Financial institutions only report audited information to confirm accuracy and truth... They do not report self proclaimed data from a company or this could cause lies to mislead people... Since the last audit, AMFE reduced the outstanding share count to 473.9 Million.
Reference link:
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/AMFE/news/Amfil-Technologies-Inc--Announces-2017-Fiscal-Year-End-Revenues-of--6-630-973-USD--Up-Almost-2400--Over-FYE-2016?id=165817&b=y&fref=gc
And AMFE claims that further reduction by 20 Million OR MORE shares is in the works.
This would AT LEAST place the outstanding share count to 453.9 Million... There is nothing wrong with that , especially considering the authorized share count is 900 Million...
So once the audit being done on AMFE's financials for the last 3 years completes, and it is almost done... Then that number financial institutions will change, and the valuation of AMFE's share price will immediately change too...
Currently, AMFE's market capitalization is $111.2 Million, but that is being figured using 664.5 Million outstanding shares at the current share price of $0.1673...
The math is:
Outstanding Shares x Price Per Share = Market Capitalization
Thus:
664.5 Million x $0.1673 = $111.2 Million
But, now take that market capitalization figure, and replace it by the real share count to get a valuation of where the share price SHOULD BE:
$111.2 Million / 453.9 Million = $0.245 per share.
AMFE's true value is flying under the radar currently!!! And this is what it is while the share price is down and challenging the lower Bollinger Band... What would it have been when we were at the 52 week high a few weeks ago of $0.235?!?!?
The math:
664.5 Million x $0.235 = $156.2 Million
$156.2 Million / 453.9 Million = $0.3441 per share...
AMFE's share price therefore should be valued between $0.245 and $0.3441... I've been saying all along AMFE will eventually get between $0.25 to $0.35 in the short term... and I believe it still will!!!
CONCLUSION
AMFE is strong, the company is solid, it is profiting, operation are firing on all cylinders, there is nothing to worry about... The share price is down, share prices fluctuate... We entered a consolidation period... I just went into SUPER GREAT DETAIL as to validate that as the case... If this were some form of pump and dump, then we would have dumped by now... AMFE has not... We are exhibiting normal trading behavior, we are just on the down side of it right now... It is easy for people to get rattled, and they just need to be mentally strong and see for themselves how that's the case... If you drill down and really do the DD and the math, etc.... You will see this is a SOLID stock to own... There is nothing to worry about, we're simply consolidating... We've done it before, I dissected the reasoning why were are right where we should be at this point... It is up to the shareholders to reason with themselves to stay in, or cut their losses/ take their gains... That's simply how the game is played... AS old longs get out, new investors get in, eventually we gain traction again, and if the fundamentals are good, along with help from catalyst (news, etc.) and technical data, we'll be off the the races again... It takes mental strength in times like these... But with AMFE, we've LITERALLY been here before... It LITERALLY paints a very similar picture...
Furthermore
We are exhibiting technical patterns that signal bullish signals... We are challenging the lower Bollinger Band we historically bounce off of, especially inside consolidation periods, we just observed a "Triple Bottom" pattern, a bullish signal, the RSI is cooled off and we seemingly NEVER drop below an RSI of 40, generally spending most of our time above and RSI of 50 even 60, and quite a lot of time above 70, 80, even 90... Technical trading is based a lot on observing previous behaviors observed by a stock, and those reading this one would actually say it is set up nicely if one knew what to look for... We are also nearing the 50 day Moving Average we nearly NEVER dip below, when we do we don't dip very far below it, or for very long... And we generally bounce right off of it into our next bullish run... These are the behaviors, and the main things that would keep history from repeating here would be things like bad news, etc.... Which there is none... There is no reason to suspect history wouldn't repeat on this stock...
LAST COMMENT
Speaking of history repeating... Have you noticed yet we tend to hit our bullish runs right around quarterly financial reporting periods... We just released out 4th quarter/ annual reportings and had a bull run... The last bull run occurred around the 3rd quarter report ( I know because that was when I entered AMFE and was apart of my DD from the time)... I created a spreadsheet that tracks all the Moving Averages ranging from 1 day to the 50 day Moving Average... When you consider during a consolidation period we sit at the center of the Bollinger Bands as they narrow in on the share price (due to lack of volatility), which means we hug the 20 day Moving Average... If I take the current 20 day Moving Average and begin replacing the older days from the 50 day Moving Average with the 20 Day Moving Average, it takes roughly 30 days for the 50 day Moving Average to equal the 20 day Moving Average... Which means the share price that during a consolidation period like we are in now while hugging the 20 day Moving Average would then challenge the 50 day Moving Average we generally bounce off of into out next bull run...
If that means 30 days (market days) from now we challenge and bounce off of the 50 day Moving Average into our next bull run, we'd do so roughly October 8th, 2017 (just an approximation, I understand the numbers are fluid and this is not an exact science- plus it doesn't account for catalyst, etc.)...
COMPARE THESE 2 PICTURES
Current:
Replacing older days within the 50 day Moving Average with the current 20 day Moving Average:
Interestingly... If we enter the next bull run in October, look at what is expected to occur then:
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm................
(This is in response to Stockzoom's latest deleted post).
Let's compare notes here...
PREVIOUS Consolidation Period
You see that previously we ranged from a low of $0.058 to the then 52 week high of $0.0954... We bounced around inside this consolidation period for 49 days (May 2nd, 2017 to July 11th, 2017), we went up, we went down, up, down, aimlessly moving whichever way the wind blew for really no given reason at all... AMFE was Tweeting away then too, and people always predicted we'd go up, and people shared concern when we didn't... Some claimed we always closed in the red when news was released, etc...
During the PREVIOUS consolidation period we hugged an average price of $0.0785... Even when we had days we fell as low as $0.058, or days we were as high as $0.0954, we AVERAGED a price of $0.0785... And I realize we never really touched the 52 week high except at the end of the previous bull run/ beginning of this consolidation period...
CURRENT Consolidation Period
Here you'll see that currently we ranged from a low of $0.165 to the current 52 week high of $0.2350... We have so far bounced around inside this consolidation period for 12 days (August 10th, 2017 to present), we again went up, we went down, up, down, aimlessly moving whichever way the wind blew for really no given reason at all... AMFE has still been Tweeting away now too, and people again always predict we'll go up, and people shared concern when we didn't... Some still even claim we always closed in the red when news is released, etc...
During the CURRENT consolidation period we hug an average price of $0.1902.... Even when we had days we fell as low as $0.1650, or days we were as high as $0.2350, we AVERAGED a price of $0.1902... And I realize we never really touched the 52 week high except at the end of the bull run/ beginning of this consolidation period...
NOTE:
Some may argue that the current consolidation period really began August 1st, 2017, and I use to be one of those... But if you REALLY drill down you'll see a few indication that indicate that is not true...
Note this picture:
1.) We gapped on July 31st, 2017 and the red days following that gap I believe were directly related to the gap itself... 2.) If you look at the RSI around August 1st, 2017 you'll note it is still above 70, and there was still another period of time after August 1st, 2017 between August 3rd, 2017 and August 10th, 2017 where the RSI increased above 70 and even 80 again before finally cooling off into the consolidation period RSI as observed before at the beginning of the previous consolidation period on May 2nd, 2017... 3.) If you observe the MACD lines, you'll also note around August 1st, 2017 that the black MACD line was still on the rise and above the red MACD line... It wasn't until August 10th, 2017 that the black MACD began to drop and fall towards and eventually into and below the red MACD line... Again, comparable even occurred at the beginning of the last consolidation period that began May 2nd, 2017... 4.) We didn't really abandon the upper Bollinger Band until August 10th, 2017 making all that was happening prior to then part of the last bull run, it wasn't until we began to fall away from the upper Bollinger Band and towards the 20 day Moving Average and even to the lower Bolinger Band that I considered the bull run terminated... Ultimately a consolidation period stays between a price range forming a tight Bollinger Band structure that straddles an average price, with Bolliner Bands most use the 20 day Moving Average, so during a consolidation period you'd say the share price generally hugs the 20 day Moving Average... It begins falling away from the upper Bollinger Band, falls to the lower one, bounces off of it, and then hugs the 20 day Moving Average... Just like it did beginning May 2nd, 2017... THIS IS WHY I consider August 10th to be the beginning of the current consolidation period, and I consider everything prior to it after July 11th, 2017 to be the entirety of the last bull run... So the gap on July 31st, 2017 and the 2 red days after which fell as low as $0.145 were not apart of the consolidation period... But the fall to $0.145 does show a floor in support, and supports the fact I believe the floor of the current consolidation period to around that area... More to come in a bit about why else I think $0.145 is roughly the floor of this consolidation period...
One final thing I want to note before moving on here is that during the previous bull run before the previous consolidation period, on April 26th, 2017 AMFE dipped to a low of $0.06 which set a floor (roughly) for the previous consolidation period though that dip on April 26th, 2017 was part of the bull run and not the actual consolidation period that didn't begin until May 2nd, 2017, it just pointed out the floor of the support... During the consolidation period, that floor was tested, and barely broken into... So again, like then, I think $0.145 will be a key point that'll be tested during the current consolidation period...
Moving on...
Proportionate Comparison
So... I drew up a way to compare then to now... I took all of the previous consolidation numbers (indicated in red font) and divided them into all the numbers of the current consolidation period (indicated in blue font), and came up with a ratio for each set of numbers (green font)... Then I took all the ratios, and averaged them into a single average ratio which indicates the proportionate variance between then to now...
In this image below, you will see those numbers:
After I did this, I found that we are currently trading 2.51 times roughly now then that of where we were before during the last consolidation period... So out swings will be larger now in proportion, as will our highs, our lows, etc. Again, as of now, 2.51 is the ratio I am working with, though it is fluid as fluctuations in the current consolidation period do play into the math changing the averages in the the blue font of the picture above, which directly impacts all the green font...
So now that I have a ratio to work with, I took all of the previous consolidation period numbers, multiplied them by my ratio of 2.51, and came up with hypothetical numbers that loosely predict how this current consolidation period may behave... And so far, it is doing so fairly well...
Key milestones of the last consolidation period were:
$0.058 (the bottom of the last consolidation range), $0.06, $0.065, $0.07, $0.075, $0.08, $0.085, $0.09, and lastly $0.0954 (the top of the last consolidation period)... So I too all of these numbers and I multiplied them by my 2.51 ratio and got:
$0.058 x 2.51 = $0.1456
$0.06 x 2.51 = $0.1506
$0.065 x 2.51 = $0.1631
$0.07 x 2.51 = $0.1757
$0.075 x 2.51 = $0.1882
$0.08 x 2.51 = $0.2008
$0.085 x 2.51 = $0.2133
$0.09 x 2.51 = $0.2259
$0.0954 x 2.51 = $0.2394
Again, all these numbers are rough figures, but note how well the actually play out what we've seen so far... For starters, remember above where I called $0.145 the floor of the current consolidation period... Well, these figures roughly agree with that... And while we didn't touch a high of $0.2394 like the figures above would call the top of our consolidation range, we did get close at $0.235... And AGAIN, these numbers are still fluid and changing... Until AMFE begins to turn back up towards the 20 day Moving Average it'll hug during the consolidation period (turning up from the lower Bollinger Band it currently challenges) these numbers are still settling... But the are a good rough approximation to go off of...
And as the picture above shows, as of right now, the actual Average price of AMFE since August 10th to present is $0.1902, and the approximate numbers based off the ratio of 12 days into the last consolidation period multiplied by the 2.51 ratio says the average should be roughly $0.1969... Pretty close, considering it is a rough approximation and the numbers are still settling into more accurate figures... Also, the current price per share of $0.1673 would equate to the proportionate price of $0.0667 if it were within the last consolidation period...
Hypotheticals vs. Reality
So, then I decided to REALLY compare these hypothetical figures predicting the consolidation period movements to those of the actual current consolidation period and it shows that all and all, the figures are not too far off...
Compare these next 4 pictures... The first 2 you've seen already above, the red is the previous consolidation period, the blue is the current consolidation period... But the yellow picture shows what the numbers would be if you take all the numbers in the red picture of the previous consolidation period, and multiplied them by the 2.51 ratio, painting a hypothetical picture where we "should be" if this current consolidation period followed similar patterns as the last...
And the grey picture just shows how far off the hypothetical figures of he yellow picture is from the actual reality figures of the blue picture... This picture basically shows you how accurate this whole concept is, and if you look at it.... It's been fairly accurate considering everything is fluid, approximations, based on moving numbers that are again still settling... Take a look:
The AMFE Tweets do NOT look fake
Tweets are genuine, we're just spoiled... AMFE Tweets more often than your typical company, and keeps us updated... AMFE also sets the bar high, so good news or general shareholder news fails to "WOW" sometimes... However NONE of the news is bad, no reason to call it fake either... And your general investor is not paying attention to Tweets that closely, or if they are, Tweets are less of a concern than general fundamentals like press releases from the OTC Markets page, etc... I cannot wrap my head around why this would call a sell off, there is literally nothing negative here... You claim it is hype to pump the stock, but the information is genuine, it isn't false... Are you saying AMFE is pumping truth to cause their share price to go up?!?!? I fail to see how truth is bad when what you read is good news... I concede it might fail to "WOW" people, but fine.... Even if that does cause a sell off (which the volume isn't exactly indicating a sell off), shares are falling into new investors hands... The company is still profiting, still running on all cylinders, the fundamentals are still solid... The sense of reality here is, the farther AMFE falls, the more of a deal the share price is to get in at, and that is because the company behind the share price is doing great... The truth is, profiting companies do NOT go broke... without reasonable explanation for the share price to drop, means it should eventually return again... It isn't like AMFE filed for bankruptcy, or is being pursued legally (law suit, fines, etc.)... There is nothing negative about AMFE aside from a perception some are trying to paint upon it because "they Tweet too much"... If AMFE dropped to $0.0001 tomorrow, given the fundamentals, I would buy in on that in a heart beat because it would quickly turn it back around and go up... If you are here long term, AMFE's behavior is of no concern right now... Only those trying to play the technicals or not aware of what they are looking at are the ones getting flustered... I just went into great detail above why AMFE is not doing anything abnormal as of this point in time... You claim it'll fall to $0.14's, and I said "sure, it might.... So?"... Get in while the getting in is cheap then!!! Fundamentally, this stock is going up...
I'll concede to you that the OTC is primarily controlled by TA players and day traders... this is why we'll consolidate more often than your typical blue chip company... But the valuation of the company is still positive... If everyone got out from underneath a succeeding company, others will eventually jump in to support it, because the company is succeeding... You are describing short term concerns... None of this matters... Simply put, if the share price goes down without merit and the company is profiting, healthy, and successful, then the share price is going back up eventually!!! The lower the share price goes, the better the deal is to get in, the more buyers will come... Hence why our chart looks the way it does... Looking at the 50 day and larger Moving Averages, we NEVER down trend... We bull run, consolidate, bull run, consolidate, etc... Notice a pattern.... That's because the fundamentals are solid!!! This isn't a company that is struggling... The chart looks BEAUTIFUL!!!
Any seller who sells, passes shares off to a buyer who buys, and the buyer hopes to also turn a profit... So when a shareholder cashes out, who cares... A new investor enters looking to make money too... THAT IS WHAT MAKES A CONSOLIDATION PERIOD WHAT IT IS!!! We'll eventually hit $0.25, Rome wasn't built over night... You can tell we are spoiled here... As mentioned above, my ratio was 2.51, which means we are currently trading 251% higher today than mere weeks/ months ago... And people are upset?!?!? lol... Really???
FUNDAMENTALS MEAN EVERYTHING!!! Know what you own!!!
You claim the outstanding shares are bloated.... But are they?!?!? I don't think they are... In fact, once the audit is released, I think the share price will jump because like a switch got flipped, numbers financial institutions report will change literally over night...
Currently financial institutions (TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, Yahoo News, etc.) report AMFE as having 664.5 Million outstanding shares...
But that is not accurate as that number is 3 years old taken from the last audit AMFE had 3 years ago... Financial institutions only report audited information to confirm accuracy and truth... They do not report self proclaimed data from a company or this could cause lies to mislead people... Since the last audit, AMFE reduced the outstanding share count to 473.9 Million.
Reference link:
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/AMFE/news/Amfil-Technologies-Inc--Announces-2017-Fiscal-Year-End-Revenues-of--6-630-973-USD--Up-Almost-2400--Over-FYE-2016?id=165817&b=y&fref=gc
And AMFE claims that further reduction by 20 Million OR MORE shares is in the works.
This would AT LEAST place the outstanding share count to 453.9 Million... There is nothing wrong with that , especially considering the authorized share count is 900 Million...
So once the audit being done on AMFE's financials for the last 3 years completes, and it is almost done... Then that number financial institutions will change, and the valuation of AMFE's share price will immediately change too...
Currently, AMFE's market capitalization is $111.2 Million, but that is being figured using 664.5 Million outstanding shares at the current share price of $0.1673...
The math is:
Outstanding Shares x Price Per Share = Market Capitalization
Thus:
664.5 Million x $0.1673 = $111.2 Million
But, now take that market capitalization figure, and replace it by the real share count to get a valuation of where the share price SHOULD BE:
$111.2 Million / 453.9 Million = $0.245 per share.
AMFE's true value is flying under the radar currently!!! And this is what it is while the share price is down and challenging the lower Bollinger Band... What would it have been when we were at the 52 week high a few weeks ago of $0.235?!?!?
The math:
664.5 Million x $0.235 = $156.2 Million
$156.2 Million / 453.9 Million = $0.3441 per share...
AMFE's share price therefore should be valued between $0.245 and $0.3441... I've been saying all along AMFE will eventually get between $0.25 to $0.35 in the short term... and I believe it still will!!!
CONCLUSION
AMFE is strong, the company is solid, it is profiting, operation are firing on all cylinders, there is nothing to worry about... The share price is down, share prices fluctuate... We entered a consolidation period... I just went into SUPER GREAT DETAIL as to validate that as the case... If this were some form of pump and dump, then we would have dumped by now... AMFE has not... We are exhibiting normal trading behavior, we are just on the down side of it right now... It is easy for people to get rattled, and they just need to be mentally strong and see for themselves how that's the case... If you drill down and really do the DD and the math, etc.... You will see this is a SOLID stock to own... There is nothing to worry about, we're simply consolidating... We've done it before, I dissected the reasoning why were are right where we should be at this point... It is up to the shareholders to reason with themselves to stay in, or cut their losses/ take their gains... That's simply how the game is played... AS old longs get out, new investors get in, eventually we gain traction again, and if the fundamentals are good, along with help from catalyst (news, etc.) and technical data, we'll be off the the races again... It takes mental strength in times like these... But with AMFE, we've LITERALLY been here before... It LITERALLY paints a very similar picture...
Furthermore
We are exhibiting technical patterns that signal bullish signals... We are challenging the lower Bollinger Band we historically bounce off of, especially inside consolidation periods, we just observed a "Triple Bottom" pattern, a bullish signal, the RSI is cooled off and we seemingly NEVER drop below an RSI of 40, generally spending most of our time above and RSI of 50 even 60, and quite a lot of time above 70, 80, even 90... Technical trading is based a lot on observing previous behaviors observed by a stock, and those reading this one would actually say it is set up nicely if one knew what to look for... We are also nearing the 50 day Moving Average we nearly NEVER dip below, when we do we don't dip very far below it, or for very long... And we generally bounce right off of it into our next bullish run... These are the behaviors, and the main things that would keep history from repeating here would be things like bad news, etc.... Which there is none... There is no reason to suspect history wouldn't repeat on this stock...
LAST COMMENT
Speaking of history repeating... Have you noticed yet we tend to hit our bullish runs right around quarterly financial reporting periods... We just released out 4th quarter/ annual reportings and had a bull run... The last bull run occurred around the 3rd quarter report ( I know because that was when I entered AMFE and was apart of my DD from the time)... I created a spreadsheet that tracks all the Moving Averages ranging from 1 day to the 50 day Moving Average... When you consider during a consolidation period we sit at the center of the Bollinger Bands as they narrow in on the share price (due to lack of volatility), which means we hug the 20 day Moving Average... If I take the current 20 day Moving Average and begin replacing the older days from the 50 day Moving Average with the 20 Day Moving Average, it takes roughly 30 days for the 50 day Moving Average to equal the 20 day Moving Average... Which means the share price that during a consolidation period like we are in now while hugging the 20 day Moving Average would then challenge the 50 day Moving Average we generally bounce off of into out next bull run...
If that means 30 days (market days) from now we challenge and bounce off of the 50 day Moving Average into our next bull run, we'd do so roughly October 8th, 2017 (just an approximation, I understand the numbers are fluid and this is not an exact science- plus it doesn't account for catalyst, etc.)...
COMPARE THESE 2 PICTURES
Current:
Replacing older days within the 50 day Moving Average with the current 20 day Moving Average:
Interestingly... If we enter the next bull run in October, look at what is expected to occur then:
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm................
(This is in response to Stockzoom's latest deleted post).
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