Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)

[moosedogger]

The claimed 30% chance of P3 success is bogus (MF article)

".....the likelihood that a Phase 3 study would advance to product registration was 64 percent...."

https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2016/06/13/clinical-trials-drug-development/

Another source who says 64%:

http://www.fdareview.org/03_drug_development.php


Another source that says 62% (Page 11, under Autoimmune)

https://www.bio.org/sites/default/files/Clinical%20Development%20Success%20Rates%202006-2015%20-%20BIO,%20Biomedtracker,%20Amplion%202016.pdf

The MF article says, "According to the FDA, around 30% of drugs that make it to late-stage studies win approval."

If the FDA can't even get that right, how many other things are they screwing up?

Assuming the 62-64% numbers are correct, VOC's odds should be in the 75-85+% probability range due to AUPH's really strong position/advantages.