NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[meirluc]

Alpha's work is substantial and interesting but IMHO the blended mOS of 17.7 months (15 months for control, 19 for trial) is a bit too short. The blended 30% OS of the NWBO trial would be about 38 months if the 233rd event happened last months and longer if it has not yet occurred. The Optune+TMZ+RT curve shows a shorter 30% OS of only about 33 months, yet the mOS of that trial is 20.9 months. This suggests to me that the blended mOS of the NWBO trial will be a few months longer than 20.9 months and I am guessing at a 23-25 months blended mOS with a control mOS of 19-21 months and a trial mOS of 25-27 months.

Furthermore, a 17.7 months blended mOS would have roughly occurred around 11/15, 18 months after the midpoint enrollment of May 2014 (5/14) and about 13 months before we even reached the 75% progression point which may have occurred around 12/16. I have not seen trials where 50% of the trial's fatalities preceded the 75% progression event by more than a year. This also suggests to me that the blended mOS event in the NWBO trial occurred months after 11/15 and extends well over 20 months.