You know it!
I was down $40K last night for the week, and now it's just $29k. Still a hefty amount but a better than 25% improvement and I'll take it!
However, I sense that ALDW is consolidating here and will soon move higher. The most obvious propellant, of course, is the upcoming 35 cents distribution still up for grabs until the 15th of this month. That's a long lead time and while there'll likely be some games played between now and then, I expect a steady enough ascent heading into the day of record as distribution hunters converge. Our yield is better than 11% and that's about as good as the best out there. Couple that with the fact that we're now into the higher gasoline utilization months of the annual cycle and you get the idea that we're heading considerably higher.
Now, there's another point that need be brought out...namely news hitting the street regarding Icahn's being rebuffed by the President---while probably not intended as a slight, merely not the right time to add to existing confrontational issues facing the Administration. The subject, of course, concerns the White House's decision to NOT alter the scheme of things where RINs are concerned. This means refiners will continue to bear the cost of ethanol blending without sought after relief.
In Icahn's case. his company, CVR Energy and the CVRR refining segment operating as an MLP that doesn't pay distributions any longer (now seven consecutive quarters of disappointment) are under pressure. For months CVRR posted a valuation a couple of dollars higher than that of ALDW but now it stands at $7.70 against our $12.16. That's an enormous turn-around. It's in the mud because of not only the failure to reward loyal unitholders but also because people tend to distrust Icahn and his motives. And they expect no good to come their way despite his having the President's ear.
As for RINs? They impact upon ALDW too, but the company has been able to profit in areas sufficient to offset the RINs expense burden.
What this boils down to for me is that ALDW is the best game in town and must be benefitting from the failure of CVRR to attract investors.
I'm not alone in awaiting $14-$15 by late September if not earlier.
My current gain in ALDW now stands at $91,210. And like the batteries I just bought, it just keeps on going and going and.........
Yeah!!!
Next week I'm expecting we'll move above $12.50/unit. Even then, the yield exceeds 11.25%. A valuation of $15 would represent a yield of 9.5% which remains higher than you'll find the rule in this sector space. That, among other items, tells me that $14 is altogether reasonable.
I hope you folks are as excited as I am. This has been such an easy pick to follow and now the profits are just rolling in.
