Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Gator328]

I think Anavex is sitting on news that most would consider positive, but it's not so amazingly positive that everyone will be rushing to buy it when it's released. In fact, I think the data can and will be spun as being negative.

Dr. Missling has repeatedly stated that with a progressive disease like Anavex, stabilization is a win. And with that in mind, I think we are going to see the next set of data that is no better, and possibly slightly worse, than the previously released data points. And the shorts will jump all over that because so many novice investors and pumpers alike thought this was a "cure" that would reverse Alzheimer's based on the video of people golfing and playing the piano, and the uptick that we saw a few years ago after the initial 5 week data showed incredible improvement.

I don't believe that Dr. Missling is intentionally withholding bad news as some here are speculating. There is no reason for him to do so. Nor do I think there would be further additions to the SAB if the data were terrible, nor do I think Missling would be presenting at investor conferences while knowing he's holding a pair of twos and acting like he's got triple aces.

I don't know that we're in a quiet period with a partner, either -- I doubt it, but you never know. More than likely, there's just not a lot to report right now. Trials take time. I think Anavex is in discussions with the FDA about a P3 trial, and they are seeking an SPA.

But I am 100% positive that if MIssling did have bad news, while he has to disclose it in a timely manner, there is nothing that requires him to disclose it immediately -- as with positive news, too. I'd say it would have to be released within the quarter, but it's not like if he gets back bad news today, he is required to post a PR tomorrow, or even next week.