Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[VuBru]

Kiwi - I just ran models using 33,000 (low end) to 34,500 PYs (realistic high end), 1612 MACE events, and with a range of placebo values. Under the low end scenario (which I think is unlikely), a placebo rate of 5.3 gives an RRR of 15.7%, so we would need a placebo rate of at least about 5.28 or so to hit the designed target RRR of 15%. At 34,000 PYs, a placebo rate of 5.1 gives an RRR of 14.1 and a placebo rate of 5.2 gives an RRR of 17.6. So the sweet spot in this model is a placebo rate of about 5.13%. Under an optimistic model (PY = 34,500), a 15% RRR would be hit at a placebo rate of about 5.08.

Going with the more realistic middle scenario (34,000 PYs):
Placebo
Rate RRR
5.3 21.1
5.4 24.4
5.5 27.6
5.6 30.1
5.7 33.6
5.8 36.5
5.9 39.3
6.0 42.0