Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[polarbear77]

So we've a CEO/BOD/Scientific Advisory Board that:

a) assumably understands the history of past failed Alzheimer's and CNS trials and decades/billions of failed research/funds; and hence designed its preclinical trials to try to fail quickly; however it seems evident to me that their compound did not fail in this Phase 2a extension and hence they're telling the world that a Phase 3 will commence this year

b) Our CEO has this as a personal mission to tackle CNS disorders and he's made it clear in the past that he has no intention of moving forward with a larger trial without a high degree of confidence in its outcome; for reasons of compassion for the afflicted and their loved ones (yet moving forward is exactly what they've told us they will do in 2017)

c) they've represented to the investment community/public that "data from an ongoing Phase 2a clinical trial in Alzheimer’s Disease demonstrates dose dependent cognitive improvements" as recently as June 2017 Jefferies presentation. (How else to interpret this statement other than: at proper dosages (likely higher) patients showed cognitive improvement over baseline))? Results that would/should be considered groundbreaking.

d) shown signs of efficacy in our small trial with "dose dependent cognitive improvement" even though efficacy was not a primary endpoint and dosages were not optimized; and while they did not have a placebo arm in the 2/2a trial, the company has presented most recently on Slide 26 from the June 2017 jefferies presentation (credit to Falconer66a for his post on Sunday 7/23 re same) that a2-73 shows restoration of P300 amplitude to healthy adult levels through Week 53 on a2-73. What are the odds of "dose dependent cognitive improvement" with P300 amplitude returning to healthy adult levels & insomnia relief (in 100% of those afflicted at start of study) to be chalked up to placebo effect? Haven't there been a multitude of previous peer-reviewed studies showing continued deterioration in the placebo arm of Alzheimer’s patients in Phase 3 Alzheimer's trials?

e) if results were not continuing to show "dose dependent cognitive improvements" at this stage in the 2a extension then the Company would've likely had the obligation to clarify and report that last week at AAIC, and an obligation to remove that language from its upcoming Sept 2017 GII conf abstract. (they've set a prior precedent of presenting at AAIC; so to not present/report because data was worsening would really compound issues for them and damage credibility/reputations; difficult to fathom they’d take this tack).

Despite the share price suppression & inherent high-risk nature of small cap biotech, I'm planning to hold for the long haul in light of the above.