Sirius XM Holdings Inc (SIRI)

[Nubedo]

http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/commentary06091302.htm

Sirius
By Tim Hanson (TMF Mmbop)
September 13, 2006

Let me get this out of the way right now: I'm neither short XM Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: XMSR) nor long Sirius Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI). But before we get to who is long and short on those stocks, let's set the stage, shall we?

It's one of the hottest questions among growth investors: XM or Sirius? Sirius has Stern; XM has Major League Baseball. XM just got upgraded by Bear Stearns; Sirius just found out that Ford (NYSE: F) would be cutting production and thereby decreasing the number of radios that will be installed in its vehicles. Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin has been buying; XM insiders are squabbling. XM has more subscribers; Sirius has better growth rates. Neither, of course, has any profits.

So who thinks Sirius is a buy and XM is a sell?

Without further ado ...
That investor goes by the handle dberson100. Who's dberson100? I have no idea, other than that he (or she) is a fairly high-rated investor in our Motley Fool CAPS database. What's CAPS? It's a community-intelligence database that ranks investors and their picks -- a system that helps us determine the best investors and the best stocks to buy.

And the community seems to agree with dberson100. Just take a look at the numbers.

Company
Total Bulls
Total Bears
All-Star Bulls
All-Star Bears

XM Satellite Radio
89
50
5
14

Sirius Satellite Radio
200
63
24
14

Data from Motley Fool CAPS, as of market close Sept. 8, 2006.

While 64% of investors think XM is a winner going forward, consider that 74% of the best-rated investors -- a rating based on pick accuracy and market outperformance -- have called XM a clear-cut loser. The sentiment for Sirius, however, is quite different. On CAPS, 76% of investors think Sirius is a winner, as do 63% of our All-Stars.

What are the reasons for these differing opinions? Content and growth rates. While CAPS investors haven't posted many positive things about either company's financial statements, the Sirius bulls never tire of pointing out that their content is better and that their company is growing faster. XM bulls, on the other hand, don't really have much to say at all. While they agree that satellite radio is a phenomenal technology, they don't seem as sold on XM the company. Call it a sector play, in other words, uninspired as it may be.