S&P 500 Index Cash Analysis By Marty Armstrong | July 15, 2017
Analysis for the Week of July 17, 2017
Analytically speaking, it appear the next turning point will arrive this month in S&P 500 Cash Index at least on a closing basis if not intraday requiring carefulness. The key week ahead for a turning point is 7/10. Last month produced a high at 245382 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 245382 to 240570. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. Yet, keep in mind that this market has made a new historical high this year constituting a 67 year rallyAs of the close of Mon. Jul. 10, 2017, the market is immediately in a neutral position for right now. S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 242743 and is trading up about 8.42% for the year from last year's closing of 223883. So far, we have been trading up for the past 2 days since the reaction low made on Thu. Jul. 6, 2017.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 19th at 245382, which was up 33 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 31st. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of June 26th, which has been a move of 1.36% percent. Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in February 2016.
Critical support still underlies this market at 203968 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Logically, my far-reaching view prospective recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in February 2016 has been a long-term Bullish trend in S&P 500 Cash Index which remains in motion as long as we hold above 180000 on a monthly closing basis. It is incredibly important to identify the broader trend for that is the underlying tone. It is wise to take position counter-trend only with this understanding of what you are doing.
Consequently, this has been a 1 year rally in motion since 2016. Caution is advisable since this is also 8 years up from the low of given that was the major low 2009. We must pay attention to the closing for this year. If we close lower at year end, beneath 223883, then we can see a pause in the uptrend into next year. Penetrating intraday last year's low of 181010 will confirm a serious correction into next year. However, we have rallied to exceed last year's high last month. We need to see a closing above 227753 at year-end to see a continued rally is possible into next year. Exceeding this year's high next year and holding last year's low intraday will signal the bullish trend is still intact. A breach of last year's low of 181010 intraday will negate that outcome.
Directing our attention to the longer term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2019, 2023 and 2026. Considering all factors, there is a possibility of a decline moving into 2019 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2023. This pattern becomes a possibility if last year's low of 181010 is penetrated even intraday. Focusing an important timing model, the Directional Change Model targets are during 2023 and during 2024. This model often picks the high or low, but can also elect a breakout to a new higher trading zone or a breakdown to a new lower trading level. Honing in on the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January 2025. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only volatility.
Bearing in mind the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of June 26th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 227753. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, last month was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 35 weeks. The last weekly level low was 208379, which formed during the week of October 31st. The last high on the weekly level was 245382, which was created during the week of June 19th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 16 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016. The last high on the monthly level was 245382, which was created during June.
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must! • DiscoverGold
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
