AI
Friday, July 14, 2017 9:43:24 PM
An unexpected day, some nice wins
I thought I would post to support others on the board trying to make dollars in bio. It can be really really hard at times. 2016 was brutal, volatility was massive, just ending the year positive was an achievement much less Sheff up 40%. I am posting my results to encourage others and say it can be done!
A few takeaways from today - PATIENCE and CONVICTION are important parts of trading bios. For ex
$STML - big breakout today. Most know I have been somewhat pounding the table on this one since trial deaths announced in February causing the move from $10 to $5. It's still cheap IMO as I fully expect it to hit $14/15 by xmas, post cohort 3 data. But it's a trade that has taken time to play out aka PATIENCE
$NEOS - I know this name well, spent tons of DD time on it and had booked nice profits along the way. But during the move from 8 to 7 I was buying, then the move to 6.50 yesterday I also was a strong buyer aka CONVICTION
$PIRS - most know I have been pounding the table on this from early 2016 and it took a long time to play out, but $1.41 to $6 is worth it. CONVICTION and PATIENCE.
SHEFFSTATION: The board is less active I should post more DD,sorry :) but the important takeaway is Sheff's style works. Don't get greedy target 12% to 25% and move on. Don't "look back!" It is part of our success, sure we leave profits on the table, but when you "look back" it leads to a bigger mistake aka GREED which too often leads to BUST!
1) DD - you can't just follow a trade you have to understand the name.
2) CATALYST - this market is missing generalist. Pharma trading at historically low PE levels, so unless you get a over riding bid from market generalist, you really need catalyst to drive shares price. Plus these Bios burn so much cash and management is often overly optimistic since they are always begging for cash, catalyst are key.
3)Take Profits, take profits, take profits... you got it?
4) Don't hold through catalyst - or do at your own peril, think of how rare it is that Sheff or I hold through a catalyst. Generally if we do it's a small percentage or where we have seen a good bit of data, such a "cohort 3 data" On the other hand $IPCI and $DVAX I would never hold through an ADCOM, way too much risk around FDA. Plus lack on management disclosures around FDA feedback prior to ADCOM creates tons of risk.
Today's gains :) good example of all the above trading points
Current plays besides the ones in the jpeg.
$ABIO, $AXSM, $ACRX, $EARS,$AXON, $FGEN, $PRTK, $RPRX, $VYGR, $CLRB, $KMDA, $AXON. $AFMD, $AMRN... that's a lot of ticker's with "A"'s kind of funny actually.
Took profits today as well
$DVAX, $CERC (2/3), $EIGR (sm. pos.), $STML (1/4), $PRTK (1/3)
Good luck and trade well!
-BioHunter
@TheBio_Hunter
I thought I would post to support others on the board trying to make dollars in bio. It can be really really hard at times. 2016 was brutal, volatility was massive, just ending the year positive was an achievement much less Sheff up 40%. I am posting my results to encourage others and say it can be done!
A few takeaways from today - PATIENCE and CONVICTION are important parts of trading bios. For ex
$STML - big breakout today. Most know I have been somewhat pounding the table on this one since trial deaths announced in February causing the move from $10 to $5. It's still cheap IMO as I fully expect it to hit $14/15 by xmas, post cohort 3 data. But it's a trade that has taken time to play out aka PATIENCE
$NEOS - I know this name well, spent tons of DD time on it and had booked nice profits along the way. But during the move from 8 to 7 I was buying, then the move to 6.50 yesterday I also was a strong buyer aka CONVICTION
$PIRS - most know I have been pounding the table on this from early 2016 and it took a long time to play out, but $1.41 to $6 is worth it. CONVICTION and PATIENCE.
SHEFFSTATION: The board is less active I should post more DD,sorry :) but the important takeaway is Sheff's style works. Don't get greedy target 12% to 25% and move on. Don't "look back!" It is part of our success, sure we leave profits on the table, but when you "look back" it leads to a bigger mistake aka GREED which too often leads to BUST!
1) DD - you can't just follow a trade you have to understand the name.
2) CATALYST - this market is missing generalist. Pharma trading at historically low PE levels, so unless you get a over riding bid from market generalist, you really need catalyst to drive shares price. Plus these Bios burn so much cash and management is often overly optimistic since they are always begging for cash, catalyst are key.
3)Take Profits, take profits, take profits... you got it?
4) Don't hold through catalyst - or do at your own peril, think of how rare it is that Sheff or I hold through a catalyst. Generally if we do it's a small percentage or where we have seen a good bit of data, such a "cohort 3 data" On the other hand $IPCI and $DVAX I would never hold through an ADCOM, way too much risk around FDA. Plus lack on management disclosures around FDA feedback prior to ADCOM creates tons of risk.
Today's gains :) good example of all the above trading points
Current plays besides the ones in the jpeg.
$ABIO, $AXSM, $ACRX, $EARS,$AXON, $FGEN, $PRTK, $RPRX, $VYGR, $CLRB, $KMDA, $AXON. $AFMD, $AMRN... that's a lot of ticker's with "A"'s kind of funny actually.
Took profits today as well
$DVAX, $CERC (2/3), $EIGR (sm. pos.), $STML (1/4), $PRTK (1/3)
Good luck and trade well!
-BioHunter
@TheBio_Hunter
-BioHunter
Twitter: @TheBio_Hunter
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