waveduke, interesting theory. Consistent with the same set of facts is someone who either has nothing (hopefully not Wave) or who is uncertain how much he will have.
It's worth looking at different possibilities. Personally I think the uncertainty explananation is the most likely.
Wave has a good opportunity. BUT SKS doesn't know how many units will deploy, when they will deploy, how quickly applications will emerge, how accepting corporate consumers will be of the technology, how many will activate Wave's services, how strongly Wave's partners will market the product, how quickly competition will emerge or exactly what form it will take, or what usage cost the market will bear.
Let's look at his assessment of cash flow. Sometime in 2004 he hopes to break even. Currently, Wave's burn rate is around $4 million. Let's use a 50% margin and assume fixed costs remain the same. By these rough estimates, SKS is hopeful that by Q4, 2004, Wave is making revenues of $8 million or so per quarter.
If things go well, maybe that number happens sooner rather than later. But it is a somewhat modest goal given Wave's previous aspirations. And it certainly isn't the kind of prediction a man with gold bars in his pockets could make without being a little misleading.
In these circumstances - uncertainty and maybe a slightly less steep deployment curve than many hope - he may think it unwise to make predictions. Of course, there's a flip side to the uncertainty. Maybe things go much better than he is willing to vouch for currently. My guess, though, is that the fog hasn't quite lifted yet.
AI
