Thursday, July 06, 2017 12:52:14 PM
These are results from my latest OS modelling. Originally I thought the Control arm would track closely with Stupp's MGMT unmethylated KM curve but since ASCO I think that's too bullish.
MB's 90% of patients received tx comment would mean ~12 control patients have PFS evented since Dec'16. Using that assumption my modelling says NWBO's control arm has to be slightly stronger than Stupp's all patients KM curve.
So my Control arm curve starts off slightly stronger than Stupp's all patients but then towards the tail end weakens and approaches Stupp's MGMT unmethylated curve since psPD patients are mainly removed.
Cross-over effect on Control arm is a wild card but I am not expecting it to be substantial.
a more detailed description at my blog
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