packster
Wave has a very good idea of the deployment plans of a number of PC OEMs based on their relationships with the TPM makes, the OEMs itself and the reseller channel. I think far better than it would appear. And they also have their own estimates of take up rates etc. and even some preliminary ideas of what volume pricing might be to an enterprise.
Their reticence to say little stems from three reasons in my opinion
1) this is the real thing and they do not want to screw it up by speaking out of school and getting their partners/customers upset. The recent IBM debacle was an example and the continued input I get is that it is up to our customers/partners to release product news, timing and volume levels.
2) they are still in an individual negotiation stage with customers entering into deals under a variety of terms. if everything is not standard, then you keep your mouth shut so you don't wind up moving to the least valuable deal terms.
3) wave has had enough issues with the market governing bodies to be extra cautious. With the S3 registration, the revisions of reports, the tight financial status, he may have been warned not to make projections.
That said I still think he could have better explained th eopportunity in a quantitative and compelling manner. if I were an analyst, I might just bookmark Wave to follow but conclude there was no way to form any valuation model that made sense (combo of reveneues, margins and need for new financing). Perhaps an emerging growth fund could take a flier but I agree we are at least a quarter away from something more firm. Of course by Q4 end, we will learn about the other PC OEMs that are shipping TPMs. I don't see how at least a couple will be big names.
AI
