NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[beachlifeisfun]

Assuming ALL of the last 25% that were enrolled in the trial are still alive (not correct, but worst case), then that would mean around 82 patients have an OS of between 20-30 months and are still alive (75% of the trial were enrolled approximately January 2015 and we are now at the end of June 2017)

We know approximately 100 patients are still alive...and, assuming the last 25% that enrolled comprise those that are alive, and the remaining 17/100 are from the 50-75% enrolled, then at least 17 patients have a running OS of between 31-38 months (50% occurred in May 2014 and 75% enrollment was reached around January 2015)

Just given these worst case numbers...that are still "blended..." I think mOS is going to be a home run. There are a lot more calculations in this, but they still lead to the same conclusion. Also, consider that it is highly likely that a good majority of the 100 currently alive have yet to progress...

Now, using this same logic, it also means that, at a minimum, at least 65 patients that enrolled on or after May 2014 have passed...which means for those 65 the OS is between 20-36 months (50% enrollment in May 2014 - time of presentation - a month or two)