Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

Talon, I disagree strongly that the pace of 273's development has been "slow" since Missling arrived. In just a couple years, he has us to p3 on alz and a Ret trial that will be a p3 for all intensive purposes. No BP moves any faster than that.

Yes people are frustrated because we expect a launch any day now, it is like kids waiting for Christmas. But that is not the reality when you take a long-term perspective.

Fact is Missling has done a brilliant job of moving us ahead very rapidly and smartly, with govts paying much of the cost so shareholders dont get diluted. VASTLY cheaper than merging with Biogen.

As for where merging with Biogen would give them 75% of the gains, that figure might be low. Biogen has a $55B market cap...the best estimate of what an alz drug is worth is $15 billion, so $15/(15+55) would actually be 79% to Biogen. Now more likely it would be at best $5b for AVXL in a merger, so $5/(5+55) is 8%. That is why to merger with Biogen just to get "manpower" is, sorry to say it, the dumbest idea I have heard in decades. It would be screwing AVXL shareholders with a telephone pole, a total betrayal.

Any manpower we need we can outsource for a few million. I'd rather get money from Lincoln Park all the way to approval than merge with Biogen. The 20% dilution at most that would happen going that route is far far preferable than a 1200% dilution in a Biogen merger.

Trust me the profits will be far far larger and just as quick if we go it alone.

At best, a partnership that is suitably rich would be OK, as long as AVXL gets the large majority of the profits. We will need a manufacturing and distribution partner eventually, but with strong p3 alz data and rett approval, we will be able to negotiate a deal where the BP is basically treated as a contract manufacturer and distributor, which means a huge profit share for us. Missling knows what he is doing, let the man execute.