Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Pyrrhonian]

HD, BB,

The off label "promotion" AMRN was allowed to engage in did not change the course of new scripts very much. The sales curve maintained its upward trajectory. Research it out if you like.

Also I looked into a few therapeutics already on the market and saw what sales changed when the P3 came in successful for a diff, much larger indication. Really not much. One in particular had compelling P3 data for a 10-fold greater population and sales only jumped 30% or so, then retreated. Then upon approval went up 4 fold fairly quick.

The problem remains here: time. Late 2019 approval with generics coming 2021-2022 limits your upside here significantly. Extremely, in fact. This will never be a $4B+ market cap co even with compelling R-IT data. They have ONE drug.. And it's been out for a while. Generics will bankrupt this co. Only question is, how much cash will be in the coffers when they turn out the lights? My guess is under $300 mil when they liquidate.

Management played this one well.

But don't worry. R-IT only has a 10% shot at succeeding anyway :)

Jmo