Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[rafunrafun]

This is what I mean:

I put in numbers for age 60 and get a 10 year risk of 33% (~ 3.3% per year): http://www.cvriskcalculator.com/calculated?age=60&gender=1&race=0&total-chol=180&hdl=50&sbp=150&dbp=100&treated=1&diabetes=1&smoker=1

I then leave all numbers the same, except the age, I change that to 65, and now that 10 year risk jumps to 41.5 (~ 4.15% per year): http://www.cvriskcalculator.com/calculated?age=65&gender=1&race=0&total-chol=180&hdl=50&sbp=150&dbp=100&treated=1&diabetes=1&smoker=1

I don't take that calculator as bible but common sense tells me it's (semi) accurate. If true, risk increases by .85% for every 5 years aged (probably more in RI, since population there is sicker).

So what was the lowest feasible placebo rate in the first full year (2012)? 5.0? I'm guessing 5.2, otherwise the company would express concern and change the design. Then it would mean that it would over 6% in 2017, and the average will be in mid to upper 5s, at the very minimum.

If the rate in 2012 was 5.6, it is probably mid to upper 6s in 2017, and the average is in the low 6s.

Combine that with 5.0 composite rate and we are looking at .... history in the making.

With 5.0 composite rate, 5.7 placebo rate would mean 25% RRR (I don't see anything lower than this)

With 5.0 composite rate, 6.3 placebo rate would mean 42% RRR (I don't see anything higher in this).