Wednesday, June 21, 2017 10:05:22 AM
Crude Oil: Bears Attack Oil
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Nearly six years ago, I wrote that I believed the odds were 90% that the top was in for crude oil, and that it was headed to 25 in the coming years. People thought I was nuts, but I remained bearish until January 2016, when I warned that oil was likely to find a bottom near the 25 target zone and bounce all the way back to 50-55. This was about the time that everyone else was finally growing very bearish, but oil indeed bottomed at 26, and then bounced up to 51.67.
In mid-2016, I noted that 51.67 could be the top of the predicted fourth wave, but that it was reasonable to consider that a fourth wave at such a large degree might well take up more time -- so I placed a 2nd target for (iv) near 55, with a time target (which I don't normally do) in the December 2016-January 2017 zone.
Well. Oil is doing its best to make it look like that (iv) label may have been placed correctly. Here's the updated oil chart:"
"Though it's a little early to entirely rule out all bull options, bears have two things going for them:
1. The new multi-month low breaks the potential of an abc off the high.
2. The rally from 26 counts well enough as an ABC with a c-wave ending diagonal, and that pattern meets the requirements for a complete wave (iv).
Thus, we probably have to presume that the (iv) label is correct, unless/until crude gives us a sign that something else is going on.
Equities had a less-than-perfect day yesterday. I would like to see RUT claim 1399 for some bearish confirmation."
"BKX got another wave up as I was hoping, but there's no guarantee that wave is complete yet -- ideally, it's complete or close to it, but I can't entirely rule out another trip into the red resistance zone yet."
"NDX is interesting -- and here, NDX would definitely look a bit better with another push up to 5800+, either immediately, or after another down/up move. The tricky part is that there are enough squiggles for ALL OF Bear B/2 to be complete, if the micro fourth and fifth waves were compressed. In other words, you can find the waves there if you look closely -- but they didn't unfold in the "usual" way, so we have to allow a little wiggle room.
Either way, right now this pattern fits the bigger picture as a flat Bear B/2 correction, so using only NDX's CURRENT appearance (which can always blow up tomorrow, of course) as a guide, there may be another large down leg still pending."
"Astute readers will notice that I didn't publish an SPX chart today, and that's because SPX is chartable only in a speculative way at this exact moment. There are at least 3 viable patterns visible there, but no clear hands-down victor -- so I don't want to chart the options and encourage people to ignore the ones they don't "like" and merely trade their bias. Thus I'll wait until it's a bit more clear.
In conclusion, crude's new low today hints that perhaps ALL OF the big (IV) is indeed complete. Equities are in a position where bears can take the wheel if they're so inclined, but no indices have given bearish confirmations just yet. That said, INDU does look very toppy on a near-term basis, so unless/until bulls can reclaim the ATH there, I'm inclined to lean bearish on even the major indices, at least for the near-term. Trade safe."
http://www.pretzelcharts.com/
"Nearly six years ago, I wrote that I believed the odds were 90% that the top was in for crude oil, and that it was headed to 25 in the coming years. People thought I was nuts, but I remained bearish until January 2016, when I warned that oil was likely to find a bottom near the 25 target zone and bounce all the way back to 50-55. This was about the time that everyone else was finally growing very bearish, but oil indeed bottomed at 26, and then bounced up to 51.67.
In mid-2016, I noted that 51.67 could be the top of the predicted fourth wave, but that it was reasonable to consider that a fourth wave at such a large degree might well take up more time -- so I placed a 2nd target for (iv) near 55, with a time target (which I don't normally do) in the December 2016-January 2017 zone.
Well. Oil is doing its best to make it look like that (iv) label may have been placed correctly. Here's the updated oil chart:"
"Though it's a little early to entirely rule out all bull options, bears have two things going for them:
1. The new multi-month low breaks the potential of an abc off the high.
2. The rally from 26 counts well enough as an ABC with a c-wave ending diagonal, and that pattern meets the requirements for a complete wave (iv).
Thus, we probably have to presume that the (iv) label is correct, unless/until crude gives us a sign that something else is going on.
Equities had a less-than-perfect day yesterday. I would like to see RUT claim 1399 for some bearish confirmation."
"BKX got another wave up as I was hoping, but there's no guarantee that wave is complete yet -- ideally, it's complete or close to it, but I can't entirely rule out another trip into the red resistance zone yet."
"NDX is interesting -- and here, NDX would definitely look a bit better with another push up to 5800+, either immediately, or after another down/up move. The tricky part is that there are enough squiggles for ALL OF Bear B/2 to be complete, if the micro fourth and fifth waves were compressed. In other words, you can find the waves there if you look closely -- but they didn't unfold in the "usual" way, so we have to allow a little wiggle room.
Either way, right now this pattern fits the bigger picture as a flat Bear B/2 correction, so using only NDX's CURRENT appearance (which can always blow up tomorrow, of course) as a guide, there may be another large down leg still pending."
"Astute readers will notice that I didn't publish an SPX chart today, and that's because SPX is chartable only in a speculative way at this exact moment. There are at least 3 viable patterns visible there, but no clear hands-down victor -- so I don't want to chart the options and encourage people to ignore the ones they don't "like" and merely trade their bias. Thus I'll wait until it's a bit more clear.
In conclusion, crude's new low today hints that perhaps ALL OF the big (IV) is indeed complete. Equities are in a position where bears can take the wheel if they're so inclined, but no indices have given bearish confirmations just yet. That said, INDU does look very toppy on a near-term basis, so unless/until bulls can reclaim the ATH there, I'm inclined to lean bearish on even the major indices, at least for the near-term. Trade safe."
Join the InvestorsHub Community
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
