NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[ou71764]

Evaluate,

IMO you are correct that the favorable blended numbers don't guarantee a successful trial.

If SOC is 12 months and blended results are 20 months, you still need to know the breakdown of the blended results - who was on the treatment and who was on the placebo, and how well did each group do?

I know some people are thinking something along the lines of "if SOC is 12 months, and the blended results are 20 months, then the treatment HAS to have had results greater than 20 months. That's a mathematical certainty - so the trial is a lock to be a huge success."

And that is a correct line of reasoning, if indeed the control group does match the historic norms for SOC. And it may be true for NWBO - I hope so. But people who have invested in small biotechs before probably have been burned by the following: that the control group often exceeds the historic norms.

At this point, IMO the news of the granting of options is far more bullish than any analysis on the pace of enrollment and timing of events.