Alon USA Partners, LP (ALDW)

[jugs]

Not wishing to frighten anybody here but I feel an obligation to share some insights regarding ALDW's valuation stability. Understand that what we SEE is not always going to be a reflection of what truly IS.

I just placed orders for NGL at prices well beneath the going value being recognized. There's always the chance I'll see the orders go through.

And now I've got to do the same thing with ALDW. Mind you, I'm not suddenly more certain we'll soon see a major price change to the lower side, but my bones are talking it to me loud and clear. I'm thinking in terms of placing orders beginning at $9.50 and then moving down incrementally with 25 cents being the medium of exchange. My first order will probably be for 200 units at $9.50. followed by the same but at $9.25 and then continuing down to $8.50 which I really don't see happening but we never know. Meanwhile, we don't make money when our cash isn't in play and that means in both directions:

Taking advantage of low prices is a fundamentally smart move as is selling high. Waiting for extremes that can cripple your portfolio holdings is unwise while fire sales can be a beautiful thing for the buyer.

Now, then...what if ALDW moves higher like right now it's up about 15 cents? It's a head fake for sure and will not hold up. Why? Because there's not a reason in the world for people to suddenly jump on board as we won't get another distribution until August. That tells us that what we're seeing now is a lot of smoke and mirrors and nothing more.