"With a desruptive event such as Li took over which is barely one year+, should we reconsider the validity of any multi year view? "
That is a very interesting question and one that reflects some of the views held in the debate about the validity regarding technical analysis.
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Forgive me if I ramble here, I've had a few Mojitos
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Technical analysis is not a way to scientifically identify patterns that magically appear and predict the future. It is a way to identify human patterns of behavior that reflect how the herd moves when exposed to similar situations. Groups tend to move in patterns when exposed to euphoria, fear, and other similar emotions.
An example is consolidation at certain levels. If you examine those levels it is easy to find that those levels have a relationship to price history.
The price could be a previous high. In this case, assuming the stock fell and is now climbing, many investors will be disillusioned and will sell at their breakeven point ("I finally got out!"). As the price finally comes to a new(er) high it will get even more selling as the old investors sell at the level they wished they had taken "way back when" and the new investors sell because they see that this was as far as it got before and they don't want to participate in the next dip.
Eventually this is selling is exhausted and the stock charges ahead. Why? Because a whole new crop of investors with a new perception of the stock see a promising future. Of course, there has to be more than just hope, there has to be a story. Sometimes there is a new product, a shift in consumer sentiment, or sometimes a change in management.
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See Blackberry (BBRY) <--LOOK at their chart. It's a whole new company now that has little to do with phones.
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Sometimes a stock will just go on a tear and have no historical figures to which it can relate - or maybe it can. In any run, there will be clumps of buying where volume spiked and little areas where buyers were less enthusiastic even though the price still climbed. These points can give clues to future performance. Some People sell when their stocks double. Some people sell when they get a 50% profit. At what levels did these people buy? You never know what the individual did but you can watch the herd.
The stock will dip and resume the climb. There are different mentalities at work and they leave a footprint. They leave a similar footprint every time - not the same footprint, but similar.
Technicians track those footprints by looking for patterns. They're not perfect and they can be wrong. Exogenous events like politics, environmental disasters, and frankly anything in life, can disrupt these patterns. When they don't though, money can be made.
Disclosures:
I owned BBRY and now own none
I traded LQMT years ago and now am long (~1% of net worth) which is probably too much.
