Just wanted to make a quick list of things that I did not expect in this trial. This is neither meant to sound negative or positive, but it just seems like a good time to acknowledge them.
1. I did not expect the resizing (or whatever you want to call it) in 2014. I finally acknowledged shortly before it occurred that Larry Smith probably was right, but nonetheless, I did not suspect it for a long time prior to that.
2. I did not expect that no interim efficacy IAs would be announced, nor did I suspect that to this day, I can genuinely say I'm not certain if any interim efficacy IAs have been performed.
3. Because I did not expect numbers 1 and 2 above, I did not expect we would need to wait this long for resolution of the trial and BLA application if appropriate. Only very recently did it become clear that Dr. Hoos' philosophy, whether known or unknown to NWBO back in December 2014, would win the day. "You will wait." This became what I suspect was the stealth anthem. Even though I first saw that recorded video a few months ago, it struck a chord in why the development took so long.
4. I did not expect to ultimately agree with the likely strategies in 1,2 and 3 above, but over time, the need to add more events required in order to capture both nonresponders early, and responders later organically made far more sense over time.
5. Very early on, I did not agree with shorts that the trial needed to exceed 300 patients, but with all the complexity and sub groupings, I think they were right.
6. I did not expect the insane price manipulation this stock went through, it has been exhausting to watch the PPS destroyed (perhaps not permanently), and dilution exponentially applied particularly over the last few months.
7. I did not expect to see a substantial tail in this trial. It still flabbergasts me to this day that this particular patient population, with the inclusion/exclusion criteria, could have any significant tail at all, but it apparently does, at least at the two-and-a-half year plus level. I honestly don't think the researchers expected it either to this extent with this particular patient population.
8. I did not expect to see the NWBO board of Directors last this long as a unit. I expected some musical chairs when finances became tight.
9. I did not expect to see Les Goldman provide loans to the company. I did not expect to see Jerry Jasinowski purchase a large number of shares in December 2016, and I really did not expect to see management/board provide a substantial loan to NWBO.
10. As I partially stated above, I did not expect to see this ever increasing merciless exponential dilution so close to results. I blame it on external forces, bears blame it on internal judgment.
11. I did not expect to see zero support from the federal government moonshot program, and my only explanation for this is that I think it may have demanded too much proprietary sharing of trade secrets -- I don't know. Otherwise, the moonshot program simply missed the boat, imho.
12. I did not expect to see IMUC not given a market opportunity with such obvious subclass statistical significance.
13. It almost goes without saying that I did not expect to see the media echo chamber keep their boots on NWBO's neck even when it was at .18 cents.
14. I did not expect to see longterm disciplined silence from the company as a response to the media and short barrage.
15. I did not expect the partial clinical hold on screening.
Respect Risk. Conduct Your Own Due Diligence. Manage your assets wisely. Diversify.
