Tuesday, May 23, 2017 10:36:38 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/22 2017 EOD
Everything suggests near-term weakness as most likely. Maybe time for contrarians to take a look?
The intra-day behavior was a typical manipulated open that couldn't hold any price elevation after the first few minutes.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 1.3K:300 $0.64/8.
09:30-10:05 opened the day with a 700 unknown for $0.68 & $0.68 x 200, x 2, x 1. B/a just after open was 26:200 $0.6720/8 (bids backed by presented $0.66 x 50, $0.65 x 100). Then came 9:32's 294 $0.65, 9:37's 100 $0.65, 9:48's b/a 660:3.7K $0.65/6 (offers jiggling $0.6599/$0.66), 9:42's 399 $0.6501/00/99, 9:43's b/a 600:2K $0.6500/98, 9:45's 6.1K $0.6507 (3.5K)/00/20/00/99/00/$0.6498/01/$0.6550, 9:46's200 $0.67/5, 9:49's b/a 3.4K:300 $0.64/7, 9:50's 200 $0.65, 10:02's b/a 100:100 $0.6502/$0.67, 10:03's 4.2K $0.6502/00 (3.5K)/$0.6410/98, 10:05's b/a 3.4K:2.9K $0.6400/99, and the period ended on 10:05's 5.1K $0.6450 (4K)/00 (700)/50.
10:06-10:07 did 60.7K in two minutes on 10:06's 41.4K $0.6350 (9K)/30 (2.6K)/$0.6400 (1.8K)/$0.6350 (1K)/$0.6400 (4K)/$0.6350/$0.6407/00/22/05/$0.6340/30/40/49/$0.6515/$0.6331 (13.2K)/30 (2.6K)/34 (2K)/30 (3.8K) and 10:07's $0.6331 (2.1K)/$0.6600/$0.6331 (700)/33/$0.6585/$0.6334 (11.8K)/35 (1.8K)/36/34/$0.6600/$0.6334 (1K)/$0.6600/$0.6335.
10:08-10:47 began extremely low/no-volume $0.64/5, with rising lows and falling highs, after 10:08's 1.7K $0.6335 (500)/$0.6600/$0.6334 (1K)/$0.6600. B/a at 10:17 was 200:300 $0.64/6. Price was interrupted by 10:25's 300 $0.64/$0.6340. The period ended on 10:47's 343 $0.6449/$0.6346/$0.6449.
10:48-11:44, after five no-trades minutes, began ... NOTHING as there were no trades 10:48 through 11:44. B/a at 10:54 was 1.5K:500 $0.6340/$0.6449, 11:02 1.5K:500 $0.6340/$0.6449. Did the bid walkers come back? Check what happens next. 11:17 2.4K:1.3K $0.6400/47, 11:35 100:1.3K $0.6401/46.
11:45-13:22 did an extremely low/no-volume small climb up on 11:45's 100 $0.6418. B/a at 11:49 was 200:1.2K $0.6424/49. 11:50's 100 hit $0.6443, 11:58's 2.9K did $0.645/$0.65 (100) and 12:01's 3.2K hit $0.66/$0.655/$0.66/$0.6546 (1.3K)/.60 (800)/.46 (700)/$0.65. Price then dropped back to begin a long, extremely low/no-volume $0.6401/$0.655. B/a at 12:02 was 100:800 $0.6487/$0.65, 12:17 100:1K $0.6450/71, 12:32 100:300 $0.6451/2, 12:50 100:1.1K $0.6500/75, 13:02 200:1.6K $0.6500/27, 13:17 100:1/3K $0.6410/92. The period ended on 13:22's 200 $0.6525/00.
13:23-14:06, after nine no-trades minute, did a drop on 13:32's 5.9K $0.6401/10/01/10/00 (3.9K)/$0.6353/30. B/a at 13:32 was 1.3K:300 $0.6340/99. That began low/medium-volume $0.6330/$0.64. B/a at 13:48 was 8.9K:200 $0.6350/86, 14:03 7.6K:400 $0.6350/$0.64. The period ended on 14:06's 100 $0.6399.
14:07-14:13, after one no-trades minute, began a drop after 14:08's 6.1K $0.64 (3.2K)/$0.65 (2.9K). 14:11's 14.3K did $0.6330 (7.6K)/$0.6400 (4.1K)/$0.6330/30/$0.6467/$0.6331/50/52/$0.6444/44/04, 14:12's 2.1K $0.6312 (1.1K)/$0.6310 (1K) and the period ended on 14:13's 100 $0.631.
14:14-15:00, after four no-trades minutes, began an extremelylow/no-volume move back up on 14:18's 100 $0.6394. B/a at 14:17 was 100:400 $0.6310/$0.6490. 14:29's 100 hit $0.6489 14:32 100:400 $0.6350/$0.6490 and there were no more trades until 14:53's 100 $0.6490 and then no more until the period's end. B/a at 14:47 had been 200:400 $0.6350/$0.6490. B/a at 14:58 was 100:1.4K $0.6350/$0.6490. The period ended on 15:00's 2K $0.6487.
15:01-15:39, during the initial three no-trades minutes had b/a at 15:02 of 200:400 $0.6350/$0.6490. Trade began an extremely low/no-volume drop on 15:04's 100 $0.642. B/a at 15:17 was 200:400 $0.6350/$0.6490. 15:21's 225 hit $0.6390/$0.64 and 15:28's 400 hit $0.6310. 15:32 bounced up to $0.6481 on 200 shares. B/a at 13:33 was 100:400 $0.6350/$0.6488. The period ended on 15:39's 4.7K $0.6412 (3.3K)/31 (1K)/$0.6350/82.
15:40-15:40 did 36.5K $0.6382 (1.8K)/50/06 (3K)/00 (28.8K incl 2 10 blks)/20/00 (1K)/50 $0.6487/$0.6412/19/77.
15:41-15:59 began a very low/medium-volume volatile failed attempt to do the usual manipulated push up into the close on 15:41's 3.2K $0.65/4/5/4/$0.6350/$0.6495/$0.6477/00. B/a at 15:50 was 100:750 $0.6440/$0.6550. 15:50's 750 hit $0.6550/$0.6440/00 and 15:51-:56 did a volatile low-volume fall $0.6477 to $0.63 and then traded very low volume $0.63/4 to end the period and day on 15:59's 3.5K $0.6300/49 (200)/00 to close on 15:59's last trade of $0.63, the official close because there was no 16:00 MM closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 89,887, 34.99% of day's volume, with a $0.6351 VWAP. For the day's volume the count seems reasonable. The percentage of day's volume is a bit on the high side though. The VWAP is below the day's $0.6382. The larger trades were distributed throughout the day.
With the larger trades distributed throughout the day and across VWAPs I can't see a way to make a guess as to who was doing what to whom.
Correlation between VWAP and buy percentage is a bit raggedy but that could be more a factor of my granularity than anything else. Normal behavior would see buying increase at some low price point by MMs, shorters, retail investors and traders, etc. Similarly, selling would increase as price rises. Generally, only when pressure is significantly uni-directional will the movements of VWAP and buy percentage be more strongly correlated in direction.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Based on what's seen on the minimal chart this seems likely. If this confirms I believe we'll have also exited medium and long-term consolidation.
On my minimal chart, the most significant thing is the $0.64 short-term support that had developed finally failed to hold as both the low and close were below it.
Also significant, I think, is that four of the last five days the (manipulated again) price tried to move above the short-term descending resistance (falling orange line) but the manipulated open couldn't produce any better than $0.6599 at 9:45 and $0.66 thereafter, both below the line, and failed to close above the line. This resistance is apparently applying significant downward pressure and I think increases the likelihood that we'll see a low hit $0.60 or so before any potential rebound might occur.
The slow EMA continued to decline, but now at a slightly slower rate than the fast EMA, with the fast well below the slow. The gap from the slow down to the fast is now $0.0247 (was $0.0118). The rate of descent for the slow EMA, which seemed to have stabilized for one day, accelerated again.
Today's manipulated open caused it to penetrate above both EMAs but price never approached the slow EMA after the early minutes,
I'm sorry to report that yesterday's thoughts about being in consolidation seem accurate: { ... but my assessment is we will not remain so for long. Today's behavior does nothing to cause a change in the opinion. As mentioned recently, I have been converted and believe now the most likely near-term exit is on a leg down. } Of course, one more day is needed to confirm this.
With all this on rising volume for the second consecutive day the prognosis is not good.
On my one-year chart, for the sixth consecutive day we did not trade completely below all SMAs, all of which are falling with them all in order, 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. Our (manipulated) high penetrated, for the sixth consecutive day, the falling 10-day SMA's $0.6512. Unfortunately, for the sixth day of trying to get above the 10-day SMA, we again closed below it at $0.63
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in accumulation/distribution, RSI (re-entered oversold), Williams $R (re-entered oversold), and full stochastic. Improvement occurred in MFI (exited oversold and untrusted by me), momentum (still below neutral) and ADX-related (still below neutral).
Today only MFI (untrusted by me) had improvement while all others weakened. RSI, Williams %R and full stochastic all re-entered oversold. Everything is below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6312 and $0.6823 ($0.6254 and $0.7020 yesterday), continued converging as the lower limit rises while the upper limit declines. The mid-point is falling due to the upper limit's rate of decline being higher than the lower limit's rate of rise.
All in, as with yesterday I remain believing that near-term we will sag lower, being out of consolidation I think, and make a leg lower.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and the short percentage moved substantially, making it to just below the top of my desired range. The buy percentage movement was small and it remains in an area strongly suggesting more near-term weakness.
The spread widened, for the same reasons as recent - manipulated open that couldn't sustain any elevation after the first few minutes - and suggests near-term movement is likely, especially with a second day of rising volume. Unfortunately, I think direction will be down.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held for for the sixth day at 17 negatives and 7 positives. Change since 04/18 is -$0.1401, -18.00%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.8128%, -0.9712%, -0.8471%, -0.9736%, -0.9789%, -0.8459%, -0.6735%, -0.6459%, -0.7513%, and -0.5928%.
All in, only the short percentage is offering any hope of near-term price improvement and it's quite near-the upper limit of my range, making that seem less likely. The buy percentage and spread and VWAP movement are all negative. I think the leg lower has begun and will continue near-term.
Bill
Everything suggests near-term weakness as most likely. Maybe time for contrarians to take a look?
The intra-day behavior was a typical manipulated open that couldn't hold any price elevation after the first few minutes.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 1.3K:300 $0.64/8.
09:30-10:05 opened the day with a 700 unknown for $0.68 & $0.68 x 200, x 2, x 1. B/a just after open was 26:200 $0.6720/8 (bids backed by presented $0.66 x 50, $0.65 x 100). Then came 9:32's 294 $0.65, 9:37's 100 $0.65, 9:48's b/a 660:3.7K $0.65/6 (offers jiggling $0.6599/$0.66), 9:42's 399 $0.6501/00/99, 9:43's b/a 600:2K $0.6500/98, 9:45's 6.1K $0.6507 (3.5K)/00/20/00/99/00/$0.6498/01/$0.6550, 9:46's200 $0.67/5, 9:49's b/a 3.4K:300 $0.64/7, 9:50's 200 $0.65, 10:02's b/a 100:100 $0.6502/$0.67, 10:03's 4.2K $0.6502/00 (3.5K)/$0.6410/98, 10:05's b/a 3.4K:2.9K $0.6400/99, and the period ended on 10:05's 5.1K $0.6450 (4K)/00 (700)/50.
10:06-10:07 did 60.7K in two minutes on 10:06's 41.4K $0.6350 (9K)/30 (2.6K)/$0.6400 (1.8K)/$0.6350 (1K)/$0.6400 (4K)/$0.6350/$0.6407/00/22/05/$0.6340/30/40/49/$0.6515/$0.6331 (13.2K)/30 (2.6K)/34 (2K)/30 (3.8K) and 10:07's $0.6331 (2.1K)/$0.6600/$0.6331 (700)/33/$0.6585/$0.6334 (11.8K)/35 (1.8K)/36/34/$0.6600/$0.6334 (1K)/$0.6600/$0.6335.
10:08-10:47 began extremely low/no-volume $0.64/5, with rising lows and falling highs, after 10:08's 1.7K $0.6335 (500)/$0.6600/$0.6334 (1K)/$0.6600. B/a at 10:17 was 200:300 $0.64/6. Price was interrupted by 10:25's 300 $0.64/$0.6340. The period ended on 10:47's 343 $0.6449/$0.6346/$0.6449.
10:48-11:44, after five no-trades minutes, began ... NOTHING as there were no trades 10:48 through 11:44. B/a at 10:54 was 1.5K:500 $0.6340/$0.6449, 11:02 1.5K:500 $0.6340/$0.6449. Did the bid walkers come back? Check what happens next. 11:17 2.4K:1.3K $0.6400/47, 11:35 100:1.3K $0.6401/46.
11:45-13:22 did an extremely low/no-volume small climb up on 11:45's 100 $0.6418. B/a at 11:49 was 200:1.2K $0.6424/49. 11:50's 100 hit $0.6443, 11:58's 2.9K did $0.645/$0.65 (100) and 12:01's 3.2K hit $0.66/$0.655/$0.66/$0.6546 (1.3K)/.60 (800)/.46 (700)/$0.65. Price then dropped back to begin a long, extremely low/no-volume $0.6401/$0.655. B/a at 12:02 was 100:800 $0.6487/$0.65, 12:17 100:1K $0.6450/71, 12:32 100:300 $0.6451/2, 12:50 100:1.1K $0.6500/75, 13:02 200:1.6K $0.6500/27, 13:17 100:1/3K $0.6410/92. The period ended on 13:22's 200 $0.6525/00.
13:23-14:06, after nine no-trades minute, did a drop on 13:32's 5.9K $0.6401/10/01/10/00 (3.9K)/$0.6353/30. B/a at 13:32 was 1.3K:300 $0.6340/99. That began low/medium-volume $0.6330/$0.64. B/a at 13:48 was 8.9K:200 $0.6350/86, 14:03 7.6K:400 $0.6350/$0.64. The period ended on 14:06's 100 $0.6399.
14:07-14:13, after one no-trades minute, began a drop after 14:08's 6.1K $0.64 (3.2K)/$0.65 (2.9K). 14:11's 14.3K did $0.6330 (7.6K)/$0.6400 (4.1K)/$0.6330/30/$0.6467/$0.6331/50/52/$0.6444/44/04, 14:12's 2.1K $0.6312 (1.1K)/$0.6310 (1K) and the period ended on 14:13's 100 $0.631.
14:14-15:00, after four no-trades minutes, began an extremelylow/no-volume move back up on 14:18's 100 $0.6394. B/a at 14:17 was 100:400 $0.6310/$0.6490. 14:29's 100 hit $0.6489 14:32 100:400 $0.6350/$0.6490 and there were no more trades until 14:53's 100 $0.6490 and then no more until the period's end. B/a at 14:47 had been 200:400 $0.6350/$0.6490. B/a at 14:58 was 100:1.4K $0.6350/$0.6490. The period ended on 15:00's 2K $0.6487.
15:01-15:39, during the initial three no-trades minutes had b/a at 15:02 of 200:400 $0.6350/$0.6490. Trade began an extremely low/no-volume drop on 15:04's 100 $0.642. B/a at 15:17 was 200:400 $0.6350/$0.6490. 15:21's 225 hit $0.6390/$0.64 and 15:28's 400 hit $0.6310. 15:32 bounced up to $0.6481 on 200 shares. B/a at 13:33 was 100:400 $0.6350/$0.6488. The period ended on 15:39's 4.7K $0.6412 (3.3K)/31 (1K)/$0.6350/82.
15:40-15:40 did 36.5K $0.6382 (1.8K)/50/06 (3K)/00 (28.8K incl 2 10 blks)/20/00 (1K)/50 $0.6487/$0.6412/19/77.
15:41-15:59 began a very low/medium-volume volatile failed attempt to do the usual manipulated push up into the close on 15:41's 3.2K $0.65/4/5/4/$0.6350/$0.6495/$0.6477/00. B/a at 15:50 was 100:750 $0.6440/$0.6550. 15:50's 750 hit $0.6550/$0.6440/00 and 15:51-:56 did a volatile low-volume fall $0.6477 to $0.63 and then traded very low volume $0.63/4 to end the period and day on 15:59's 3.5K $0.6300/49 (200)/00 to close on 15:59's last trade of $0.63, the official close because there was no 16:00 MM closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 13 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 89,887, 34.99% of day's volume, with a $0.6351 VWAP. For the day's volume the count seems reasonable. The percentage of day's volume is a bit on the high side though. The VWAP is below the day's $0.6382. The larger trades were distributed throughout the day.
With the larger trades distributed throughout the day and across VWAPs I can't see a way to make a guess as to who was doing what to whom.
Note that three periods comprising only 22 minutes took ~50.4% of days volume at the three lowest VWAPs - 10:07, 15:40 and 15:59. Two of the three cause a fall in buy percentage, indicating a high sell percentage in those two periods, although the last one would appear to be much more balanced as the change was small. That period was the one in which "they" tried to do the usual manipulation, which failed, of price up into the close and probably explains why the buy percentage didn't fall more. "They" had to buy to move price higher.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:05 17136 $0.6400 $0.6800 $11,136.50 $0.6499 6.67% 25.62% Incl 10:05 $0.6450 4,000
10:07 60739 $0.6330 $0.6600 $38,543.86 $0.6346 23.65% 29.13% Incl 10:06 $0.6350 9,000 $0.6331 5,600
10:06 $0.6331 5,600 10:07 $0.6334 9,800
10:47 16838 $0.6331 $0.6600 $10,898.49 $0.6473 6.56% 30.32% Incl 10:17 $0.6599 4,545
13:22 18604 $0.6401 $0.6600 $12,073.36 $0.6490 7.24% 31.85%
14:06 32918 $0.6330 $0.6410 $21,001.76 $0.6380 12.82% 35.94% Incl 13:53 $0.6400 5,200
14:13 25828 $0.6310 $0.6500 $16,486.68 $0.6383 10.06% 32.47% Incl 14:11 $0.6330 7,550 $0.6400 4,092
15:00 8600 $0.6350 $0.6490 $5,495.83 $0.6391 3.35% 32.14% Incl 14:20 $0.6357 6,000
15:39 5800 $0.6310 $0.6481 $3,716.42 $0.6408 2.26% 31.82%
15:40 36525 $0.6300 $0.6487 $23,036.76 $0.6307 14.22% 26.81% Incl 15:40 $0.6300 10,000 10,000
15:59 32093 $0.6300 $0.6550 $20,393.88 $0.6355 12.49% 26.34% Incl 15:55 $0.6300 8,500
Correlation between VWAP and buy percentage is a bit raggedy but that could be more a factor of my granularity than anything else. Normal behavior would see buying increase at some low price point by MMs, shorters, retail investors and traders, etc. Similarly, selling would increase as price rises. Generally, only when pressure is significantly uni-directional will the movements of VWAP and buy percentage be more strongly correlated in direction.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
These are some nasty movements when volume increase is factored in. This fits with yesterday's { ... With full information, which is not available to pure chartists that don't look intra-day, it's hard to buy into the bullish appearance the chart suggests. } I also iterated my thought that { ... the exit from consolidation is looking increasingly likely and a break below $0.64, which has been support for four days, seems quite likely as well. } With today's low and close of $0.63 breaking below the $0.64 apparent support I think the leg down out of consolidation has begun. However, conventional TA says we need a confirmation by closing a second consecutive day below $0.64.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -0.66% -1.56% -0.66% -3.08% 31.19%
Prior 5.31% 0.00% 3.71% -0.55% 8.28%
Based on what's seen on the minimal chart this seems likely. If this confirms I believe we'll have also exited medium and long-term consolidation.
On my minimal chart, the most significant thing is the $0.64 short-term support that had developed finally failed to hold as both the low and close were below it.
Also significant, I think, is that four of the last five days the (manipulated again) price tried to move above the short-term descending resistance (falling orange line) but the manipulated open couldn't produce any better than $0.6599 at 9:45 and $0.66 thereafter, both below the line, and failed to close above the line. This resistance is apparently applying significant downward pressure and I think increases the likelihood that we'll see a low hit $0.60 or so before any potential rebound might occur.
The slow EMA continued to decline, but now at a slightly slower rate than the fast EMA, with the fast well below the slow. The gap from the slow down to the fast is now $0.0247 (was $0.0118). The rate of descent for the slow EMA, which seemed to have stabilized for one day, accelerated again.
Today's manipulated open caused it to penetrate above both EMAs but price never approached the slow EMA after the early minutes,
I'm sorry to report that yesterday's thoughts about being in consolidation seem accurate: { ... but my assessment is we will not remain so for long. Today's behavior does nothing to cause a change in the opinion. As mentioned recently, I have been converted and believe now the most likely near-term exit is on a leg down. } Of course, one more day is needed to confirm this.
With all this on rising volume for the second consecutive day the prognosis is not good.
On my one-year chart, for the sixth consecutive day we did not trade completely below all SMAs, all of which are falling with them all in order, 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. Our (manipulated) high penetrated, for the sixth consecutive day, the falling 10-day SMA's $0.6512. Unfortunately, for the sixth day of trying to get above the 10-day SMA, we again closed below it at $0.63
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in accumulation/distribution, RSI (re-entered oversold), Williams $R (re-entered oversold), and full stochastic. Improvement occurred in MFI (exited oversold and untrusted by me), momentum (still below neutral) and ADX-related (still below neutral).
Today only MFI (untrusted by me) had improvement while all others weakened. RSI, Williams %R and full stochastic all re-entered oversold. Everything is below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6312 and $0.6823 ($0.6254 and $0.7020 yesterday), continued converging as the lower limit rises while the upper limit declines. The mid-point is falling due to the upper limit's rate of decline being higher than the lower limit's rate of rise.
All in, as with yesterday I remain believing that near-term we will sag lower, being out of consolidation I think, and make a leg lower.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, and the short percentage moved substantially, making it to just below the top of my desired range. The buy percentage movement was small and it remains in an area strongly suggesting more near-term weakness.
The spread widened, for the same reasons as recent - manipulated open that couldn't sustain any elevation after the first few minutes - and suggests near-term movement is likely, especially with a second day of rising volume. Unfortunately, I think direction will be down.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held for for the sixth day at 17 negatives and 7 positives. Change since 04/18 is -$0.1401, -18.00%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.8128%, -0.9712%, -0.8471%, -0.9736%, -0.9789%, -0.8459%, -0.6735%, -0.6459%, -0.7513%, and -0.5928%.
All in, only the short percentage is offering any hope of near-term price improvement and it's quite near-the upper limit of my range, making that seem less likely. The buy percentage and spread and VWAP movement are all negative. I think the leg lower has begun and will continue near-term.
Bill
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