Monday, May 22, 2017 11:25:42 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 05/19 2017 EOD
No change in my outlook. Still in consolidation but expecting an exit to the down side.
Today was a change from the usual - after the manipulated $0.6845 buy to open the day, they couldn't even hold the low to a reasonable level and price hit $0.6404 on 200 shares in the opening minute's last trade and 9:44's 10.4K hit $0.6402. 10:45's 41.8K didn't move price but it was ~114% of all prior trades and ~53.3% of volume to that point. It moved the buy percentage from 10:30's ~32% to ~18%, expressing the bearishness of the day I think.
After 9:50's $0.6798 (100 shares), no later trade exceeded $0.66, -3.58% from that manipulated opening high. That sort of move is a normal whole day's swing during typical consolidation periods.
From below: { Then consider the rest of the movements in that light - flat low, high up less than the open (meaning no one later took the bait) and a lower close. With full information, which is not available to pure chartists that don't look intra-day, it's hard to buy into the bullish appearance the chart suggests. }
I hope I'm wrong, but I suspect not.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 500:300 $0.6401/$0.68.
09:30-10:13 opened the day with a 1,850 buy for $0.6845 & $0.6845 x 78, $0.67 x 800, x 200, x 1K, $0.6404 x 200. B/a just after open was 2K:400 $0.6403/$0.68. Then came 9:35's 100 $0.68, 9:38's b/a 2K:2K $0.6403/$0.67, 9:42's 20.7K $0.6700 (2K)/04 (300)/03 (400)/06 (1.4K)/04 (1.4K)/03 (3.5K)/02 (1.2K), 9:44's 10.7K $0.6401 (700)/00 (6.8K)/01 (1.3K)/00 (1.3K)/01/00, 9:50's b/a 500:400 $0.6401/$0.6798, 9:50's 100 $0.6798, 9:55's 200 $0.65, 10:01's 100 $0.65, 10:05's b/a 500:500 $0.6401/$0.6599, 10:05's 100 $0.6599, and the period ended on 10:13's 875 $0.6559/$0.6405/$0.65 (500).
10:14-10:45, during five no-trades minutes had 10:15's b/a of 500:500 $0.6401/$0.6599. Trade began mostly extremely low/no-volume $0.6421/$0.6550, with rising lows, on 10:19's 125 $0.6421, 10:21's 100 $0.6421, 10:28's 100 $0.6549, and 10:32's b/a 500:500 $0.6401/49. Volume was interrupted by 10:36's 7.8K $0.6548 (3.8K)/49 (500)/50/00 (900)/25/00/01/00/25/00/01/00 and 10:37's 1.4K $0.6550 (700)/02/50/01/26/03/02. B/a at 10:43 was 200:200 $0.6502/50. The period ended on 10:45's 41.8K $0.6526/03/02/26/02/03/ ... 01/25/00/25/00 (21.6K incl 18.3K blk)/25/50/00 (8.5K)/25/50/01/00 (2.5K)/50/00 (3.6K).
10:46-11:35, after five no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume (e.g. no trades 10:52-11:04, 11:09-:34) $0.6500/1, with slowly marginally rising range, on 10:51's 300 $0.6500/1. B/a at 10:53 was 12.5K:200 $0.65/6, 11:02 12.2K:200 $0.65/6, 11:17 100:300 $0.6501/$0.66, 11:32 100:800 $0.6501/99. 50 minutes traded 930 shares! That just seems like a sick stock with MM's doing most of the volume among themselves with no customers' orders in the price range they can actually try to trade.
11:36-12:55, during the initial ten no-trades minutes had b/a at 11:45 of 200:800 $0.6537/98. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6501/97, with falling highs hitting $0.655 by 12:02, on 11:46's 3K $0.6597 (2.1K)/37/38/57. B/a at 12:02 was 200:200 $0.6501/97, 12:17 100:300 $0.6576/78, 12:32 200:500 $0.6501/50, 12:50 100:100 $0.6501/50. The period ended on 12:55's 16.8K $0.6505/03/00 (6.3K)/35/74/00 (5.7K)/37/00 (2.9K)/37/00/37/00.
12:56-13:21, after three no-trades minutes, did a drop on 12:59's 3.9K $0.6500/41 (600) to begin extremely low/no-volume $0.6460/$0.6537, with rising highs, B/a at 13:02 was 1.3K:254 $0.6450/74, 13:17 1.2K:254 $0.6450/74. The period ended on 13:21's 4.3K $0.6483/$0.6512/$0.6493 (3K)/$0.6512/$0.6451/$0.6512/60.
13:22-16:00, after four no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6401/$0.6574 after 13:26's 12.3K $0.6512/$0.6450 (1.3K)/$0.6401 (7.9K)/$0.6574 (700)/$0.6402 (1.8K)/$0.6574/00/$0.6402. B/a at 13:32 was 600:344 $0.6401/$0.6574, 13:47 700:344 $0.6401/$0.6574, 15:50 1K:2.7K $0.6450/$0.65. Volume was interrupted by 13:50-:52's 5.5K $0.6500 (2.1K)/37/00/01/00/01/02/01/00/01 (1.1K)/00/01/00/01. Volume was interrupted by 14:16's 4.6K $0.6501 (3.6K)/00/37 0.6500 (600). Volume was interrupted by 14:36's-:38's 5.3K $0.6501/47 (2K)/01/02/01/03/00/01/03/01/02/01/03/02/01/02/01/38/02/01. Volume was interrupted by 14:46's 6.7K $0.6500 (5.4K)/25/00 (800)/25/00 and 14:49-:50's 21.3K $0.6500 (1.5K)/01 (1.5K)/00/01/25/00/01/25/00/01/00/01/ ... 50/00/01/00/01/ ... 50/25/00/01/50/00 (4.5K)/$0.6401/00/75/$0.6550 (3.5K)/$0.6401/00/75/$0.6550/$0.6475. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.2K $0.6450 (1,050)/$0.65 and 16:00's 628 buy for $0.65 & sells $0.64 x 400, $0.6341 x 54, x 46, x 54.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 51,421, 26.26% of day's volume, with a $0.6477 VWAP. Consider the day's volume the count seems reasonable and the percentage of day's volume is in a normal range.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Then consider the rest of the movements in that light - flat low, high up less than the open (meaning no one later took the bait) and a lower close. With full information, which is not available to pure chartists that don't look intra-day, it's hard to buy into the bullish appearance the chart suggests.
Anyway, yesterday I said { With the second consecutive day of declines in all but the close, the exit from consolidation is looking increasingly likely and a break below $0.64, which has been support for four days, seems quite likely as well. If the manipulation I suspect is real, it might take a while to get there though. } 'Nuff said I guess - time will tell.
On my minimal chart, the manipulated open got trade range to penetrate the descending resistance (falling orange line) around $0.655 but it struggled the rest of the day to stay above, doing no better than $0.66 after the early few minutes. The low held again at $0.64, the price I had mentioned seemed relatively strong support for now. Volume was up about 8% though on an ersatz higher day so some chartist might get sucked in. This fits with yesterday's { ... and that could give us another few days of sideways, which could put the high(s) at or above the line as it continues falling. }
The slow EMA continued to decline, at a slightly faster rate now than the fast EMA, with the fast below the slow. The gap from the slow down to the fast is now $0.0118 (was $0.0137). The rate of descent for the slow EMA seems to have stabilized. It probably won't hold - a change to down faster o reversing (unlikely) would seem to be in the cards.
The high had hit the slow EMA for three consecutive day, as mentioned, due to typical early manipulations to set a high and then yesterday came nowhere near it. Today's manipulated open caused it to penetrate above it, $0.6735, but price never approached it after those early minutes,
It looks like we are still in the short-term consolidation but my assessment is we will not remain so for long. Today's behavior does nothing to cause a change in the opinion. As mentioned recently, I have been converted and believe now the most likely near-term exit is on a leg down.
On my one-year chart, for the fifth consecutive day we did not trade completely below all SMAs, all of which are falling with them all in order, 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. Our (manipulated) high penetrated, for the fifth consecutive day, the falling 10-day SMA's $0.6548. Unfortunately, for the fifth day of trying to get above the 10-day SMA, we again closed below it at $0.65.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution, RSI (got just above oversold), MFI (was still oversold and untrusted by me), momentum (was still below neutral), Williams %R (still was oversold), and full stochastic (was still below neutral). ADX-related was, in aggregate flattish.
Today, had weakening in accumulation/distribution, RSI (re-entered oversold), Williams $R (re-entered oversold), and full stochastic. Improvement occurred in MFI (exited oversold and untrusted by me), momentum (still below neutral) and ADX-related (still below neutral).
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6254 and $0.7020 ($0.6219 and $0.7159 yesterday), continued converging as the lower limit rises while the upper limit declines. The mid-point is falling due to the upper limit's rate of decline being higher than the lower limit's rate of rise.
All in, yesterday I resolved the conflicts in the available data (intra-day behavior, charts, intra-day breakdown VWAP/buy percentages, ...) to the negative with { ... leads me to remain more negative. My assessment is that while we may remain in a mostly sideways trend near-term, with some short-term improvement in the price range, likely due to manipulation, the movements of buy percentages and VWAPs intra-day will ultimately sag lower near-term. }
Today, I remain with that assessment, bolstered by the intra-day behavior, the breakdown's buy percentage and VWAP behavior, and the weakening of the chart oscillators combined with the manipulated highs.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but all that goodness was offset by the short-percentage moving further below my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage achieving (if it could be considered "achievement) an abysmally low value. suggesting only more near-term downside.
The spread expanded and suggests near-term movement is likely. With consideration of the trends and percentages for short and buy, I think it's saying down and likely with a little more magnitude than that to which we've become accustomed. Might take a couple days to play out though if the attempted manipulation is still occurring.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held for for the fifth day at 17 negatives and 7 positives. Change since 04/17 is -$0.1746, -21.18%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.9712%, -0.8471%, -0.9736%, -0.9789%, -0.8459%, -0.6735%, -0.6459%, -0.7513%, -0.5928%, and -0.6491%.
All in, still expecting an exit to the down side from consolidation.
Bill
No change in my outlook. Still in consolidation but expecting an exit to the down side.
Today was a change from the usual - after the manipulated $0.6845 buy to open the day, they couldn't even hold the low to a reasonable level and price hit $0.6404 on 200 shares in the opening minute's last trade and 9:44's 10.4K hit $0.6402. 10:45's 41.8K didn't move price but it was ~114% of all prior trades and ~53.3% of volume to that point. It moved the buy percentage from 10:30's ~32% to ~18%, expressing the bearishness of the day I think.
After 9:50's $0.6798 (100 shares), no later trade exceeded $0.66, -3.58% from that manipulated opening high. That sort of move is a normal whole day's swing during typical consolidation periods.
From below: { Then consider the rest of the movements in that light - flat low, high up less than the open (meaning no one later took the bait) and a lower close. With full information, which is not available to pure chartists that don't look intra-day, it's hard to buy into the bullish appearance the chart suggests. }
I hope I'm wrong, but I suspect not.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a just before open was 500:300 $0.6401/$0.68.
09:30-10:13 opened the day with a 1,850 buy for $0.6845 & $0.6845 x 78, $0.67 x 800, x 200, x 1K, $0.6404 x 200. B/a just after open was 2K:400 $0.6403/$0.68. Then came 9:35's 100 $0.68, 9:38's b/a 2K:2K $0.6403/$0.67, 9:42's 20.7K $0.6700 (2K)/04 (300)/03 (400)/06 (1.4K)/04 (1.4K)/03 (3.5K)/02 (1.2K), 9:44's 10.7K $0.6401 (700)/00 (6.8K)/01 (1.3K)/00 (1.3K)/01/00, 9:50's b/a 500:400 $0.6401/$0.6798, 9:50's 100 $0.6798, 9:55's 200 $0.65, 10:01's 100 $0.65, 10:05's b/a 500:500 $0.6401/$0.6599, 10:05's 100 $0.6599, and the period ended on 10:13's 875 $0.6559/$0.6405/$0.65 (500).
10:14-10:45, during five no-trades minutes had 10:15's b/a of 500:500 $0.6401/$0.6599. Trade began mostly extremely low/no-volume $0.6421/$0.6550, with rising lows, on 10:19's 125 $0.6421, 10:21's 100 $0.6421, 10:28's 100 $0.6549, and 10:32's b/a 500:500 $0.6401/49. Volume was interrupted by 10:36's 7.8K $0.6548 (3.8K)/49 (500)/50/00 (900)/25/00/01/00/25/00/01/00 and 10:37's 1.4K $0.6550 (700)/02/50/01/26/03/02. B/a at 10:43 was 200:200 $0.6502/50. The period ended on 10:45's 41.8K $0.6526/03/02/26/02/03/ ... 01/25/00/25/00 (21.6K incl 18.3K blk)/25/50/00 (8.5K)/25/50/01/00 (2.5K)/50/00 (3.6K).
10:46-11:35, after five no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume (e.g. no trades 10:52-11:04, 11:09-:34) $0.6500/1, with slowly marginally rising range, on 10:51's 300 $0.6500/1. B/a at 10:53 was 12.5K:200 $0.65/6, 11:02 12.2K:200 $0.65/6, 11:17 100:300 $0.6501/$0.66, 11:32 100:800 $0.6501/99. 50 minutes traded 930 shares! That just seems like a sick stock with MM's doing most of the volume among themselves with no customers' orders in the price range they can actually try to trade.
11:36-12:55, during the initial ten no-trades minutes had b/a at 11:45 of 200:800 $0.6537/98. Trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.6501/97, with falling highs hitting $0.655 by 12:02, on 11:46's 3K $0.6597 (2.1K)/37/38/57. B/a at 12:02 was 200:200 $0.6501/97, 12:17 100:300 $0.6576/78, 12:32 200:500 $0.6501/50, 12:50 100:100 $0.6501/50. The period ended on 12:55's 16.8K $0.6505/03/00 (6.3K)/35/74/00 (5.7K)/37/00 (2.9K)/37/00/37/00.
12:56-13:21, after three no-trades minutes, did a drop on 12:59's 3.9K $0.6500/41 (600) to begin extremely low/no-volume $0.6460/$0.6537, with rising highs, B/a at 13:02 was 1.3K:254 $0.6450/74, 13:17 1.2K:254 $0.6450/74. The period ended on 13:21's 4.3K $0.6483/$0.6512/$0.6493 (3K)/$0.6512/$0.6451/$0.6512/60.
13:22-16:00, after four no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.6401/$0.6574 after 13:26's 12.3K $0.6512/$0.6450 (1.3K)/$0.6401 (7.9K)/$0.6574 (700)/$0.6402 (1.8K)/$0.6574/00/$0.6402. B/a at 13:32 was 600:344 $0.6401/$0.6574, 13:47 700:344 $0.6401/$0.6574, 15:50 1K:2.7K $0.6450/$0.65. Volume was interrupted by 13:50-:52's 5.5K $0.6500 (2.1K)/37/00/01/00/01/02/01/00/01 (1.1K)/00/01/00/01. Volume was interrupted by 14:16's 4.6K $0.6501 (3.6K)/00/37 0.6500 (600). Volume was interrupted by 14:36's-:38's 5.3K $0.6501/47 (2K)/01/02/01/03/00/01/03/01/02/01/03/02/01/02/01/38/02/01. Volume was interrupted by 14:46's 6.7K $0.6500 (5.4K)/25/00 (800)/25/00 and 14:49-:50's 21.3K $0.6500 (1.5K)/01 (1.5K)/00/01/25/00/01/25/00/01/00/01/ ... 50/00/01/00/01/ ... 50/25/00/01/50/00 (4.5K)/$0.6401/00/75/$0.6550 (3.5K)/$0.6401/00/75/$0.6550/$0.6475. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.2K $0.6450 (1,050)/$0.65 and 16:00's 628 buy for $0.65 & sells $0.64 x 400, $0.6341 x 54, x 46, x 54.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K & 3 4K+) totaling 51,421, 26.26% of day's volume, with a $0.6477 VWAP. Consider the day's volume the count seems reasonable and the percentage of day's volume is in a normal range.
50 minutes traded 930 shares, $605. That tells us something about what's going on. No buyers willing to move up and no sellers willing to move lower and that leaves the MMs scalping each other when they can.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:13 26558 $0.6400 $0.6845 $17,223.59 $0.6485 13.56% 32.12% Incl 09:44 $0.6400 4,096
10:45 51806 $0.6421 $0.6550 $33,705.18 $0.6506 26.46% 18.19% Incl 10:45 $0.6500 18,300 4,600
11:35 930 $0.6500 $0.6550 $605.05 $0.6506 0.47% 17.97%
12:55 32244 $0.6500 $0.6597 $21,031.22 $0.6523 16.47% 18.36% Incl 12:55 $0.6500 6,300 4,800
13:21 14440 $0.6450 $0.6574 $9,404.62 $0.6513 7.37% 20.00%
16:00 68626 $0.6400 $0.6574 $44,513.32 $0.6486 35.05% 19.74% Incl 13:26 $0.6401 7,915 14:46 $0.6500 5,410
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Check the movement on the open and then review my comments above about what happened in the same and subsequent minutes.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 5.31% 0.00% 3.71% -0.55% 8.28%
Prior -5.11% -0.08% -3.65% 0.58% -2.80%
Then consider the rest of the movements in that light - flat low, high up less than the open (meaning no one later took the bait) and a lower close. With full information, which is not available to pure chartists that don't look intra-day, it's hard to buy into the bullish appearance the chart suggests.
Anyway, yesterday I said { With the second consecutive day of declines in all but the close, the exit from consolidation is looking increasingly likely and a break below $0.64, which has been support for four days, seems quite likely as well. If the manipulation I suspect is real, it might take a while to get there though. } 'Nuff said I guess - time will tell.
On my minimal chart, the manipulated open got trade range to penetrate the descending resistance (falling orange line) around $0.655 but it struggled the rest of the day to stay above, doing no better than $0.66 after the early few minutes. The low held again at $0.64, the price I had mentioned seemed relatively strong support for now. Volume was up about 8% though on an ersatz higher day so some chartist might get sucked in. This fits with yesterday's { ... and that could give us another few days of sideways, which could put the high(s) at or above the line as it continues falling. }
The slow EMA continued to decline, at a slightly faster rate now than the fast EMA, with the fast below the slow. The gap from the slow down to the fast is now $0.0118 (was $0.0137). The rate of descent for the slow EMA seems to have stabilized. It probably won't hold - a change to down faster o reversing (unlikely) would seem to be in the cards.
The high had hit the slow EMA for three consecutive day, as mentioned, due to typical early manipulations to set a high and then yesterday came nowhere near it. Today's manipulated open caused it to penetrate above it, $0.6735, but price never approached it after those early minutes,
It looks like we are still in the short-term consolidation but my assessment is we will not remain so for long. Today's behavior does nothing to cause a change in the opinion. As mentioned recently, I have been converted and believe now the most likely near-term exit is on a leg down.
On my one-year chart, for the fifth consecutive day we did not trade completely below all SMAs, all of which are falling with them all in order, 10 < 20 < 50 < 200. Our (manipulated) high penetrated, for the fifth consecutive day, the falling 10-day SMA's $0.6548. Unfortunately, for the fifth day of trying to get above the 10-day SMA, we again closed below it at $0.65.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in accumulation/distribution, RSI (got just above oversold), MFI (was still oversold and untrusted by me), momentum (was still below neutral), Williams %R (still was oversold), and full stochastic (was still below neutral). ADX-related was, in aggregate flattish.
Today, had weakening in accumulation/distribution, RSI (re-entered oversold), Williams $R (re-entered oversold), and full stochastic. Improvement occurred in MFI (exited oversold and untrusted by me), momentum (still below neutral) and ADX-related (still below neutral).
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6254 and $0.7020 ($0.6219 and $0.7159 yesterday), continued converging as the lower limit rises while the upper limit declines. The mid-point is falling due to the upper limit's rate of decline being higher than the lower limit's rate of rise.
All in, yesterday I resolved the conflicts in the available data (intra-day behavior, charts, intra-day breakdown VWAP/buy percentages, ...) to the negative with { ... leads me to remain more negative. My assessment is that while we may remain in a mostly sideways trend near-term, with some short-term improvement in the price range, likely due to manipulation, the movements of buy percentages and VWAPs intra-day will ultimately sag lower near-term. }
Today, I remain with that assessment, bolstered by the intra-day behavior, the breakdown's buy percentage and VWAP behavior, and the weakening of the chart oscillators combined with the manipulated highs.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, good, but all that goodness was offset by the short-percentage moving further below my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage achieving (if it could be considered "achievement) an abysmally low value. suggesting only more near-term downside.
The spread expanded and suggests near-term movement is likely. With consideration of the trends and percentages for short and buy, I think it's saying down and likely with a little more magnitude than that to which we've become accustomed. Might take a couple days to play out though if the attempted manipulation is still occurring.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held for for the fifth day at 17 negatives and 7 positives. Change since 04/17 is -$0.1746, -21.18%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.9712%, -0.8471%, -0.9736%, -0.9789%, -0.8459%, -0.6735%, -0.6459%, -0.7513%, -0.5928%, and -0.6491%.
All in, still expecting an exit to the down side from consolidation.
Bill
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