Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

c-

Few comments:

1.) "Given the negative propaganda by the likes of AF one must be prepared for a short-attack right after R-I results"

Yeah, short-attack is possible (realistic), but ... R-IT result will be a clinical outcome vs. laboratory (ANCHOR) ... All the likes of AF could say what they want, but if (as we assume) the result will be unquestionable (I mean clear benefit) they could not prove / debate that reduction in MACE is acceptable or not as a proof of reduction in MACE ...

2.) "Should AMRN continue to go it alone they will issue more stock, but they could ramp up sales to around $2 billion ... Assuming 3x revenues a market cap of $6 billion, with 600 million shares outstanding (yes, I'm adding 250 miion more shares) that would equate to $10.00 per share"

I do not see any scenario when AMRN will need $750M (or $2.5bn @10 or $5.0 bn @20 before dilution of 250M) additional cash ... if they will dilute anything it will be significantly less (%).

3.) "Vascepa could be an $8 billion in revenues drug with just 10% of the US statin users in 2020. (40 million patients x 10% = 4 million patients x $2000 a year = $8 billion."

Statin users increased from 21.8M to 39.2M individual over ten years (2002/03 - 2012/13). 13 million more Americans would take statins if new guidelines will be followed (or 20M more if the trend will remain the same), resulted in 56-60M individual ... BUT ... statin usage isn't 12 mths / year for all individuals ... it is app. 6 mths -> 30M (annualized) statin users

Yearly net revenue (per annualized patient) is less than $2,000, it is app. $1,600.

Best,
G