Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)

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NY Silver COMEX Futures Analysis
By Martin Armstrong | May 21, 2017

Analysis for the Week of May 22, 2017

We should see a trend change come June in NY Silver COMEX Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 186550 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 186550 to 171850. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. As of the close of Thu. May. 18, 2017, the market is immediately in a neutral position for right now with still an underlying bearish tone. NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 166700 and is trading up about 4.25% for the year from last year's closing of 159890. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Wed. May. 17, 2017.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 17th at 186550, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 19th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of May 8th, which has been a move of 5.91% percent.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 212250 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during July 2016. Critical support still underlies this market at 154340 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.



Methodically, my broader-term looking forward recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Silver COMEX Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Silver COMEX Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 212250 and 137300. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 212250 to 137300. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 212250 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 185060. There remains a long-term risk of an extended rally into 2017 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new highs unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the rally as far out as 2018. To accomplish an extended bull market of this nature requires penetrating above 185060 on an annual closing basis.

So far we have elected a Yearly buy signal from the low of 2015. Nevertheless, we must focuse upon overhead resistance standing at the 185060 level at this time.

Bearing in mind the immediate trend remains bearish since April made new lows and we have penetrated that low so far this month. This is further illustrated given the fact that last month also closed lower. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 5/15 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 4 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 186550, which was created during the week of April 17th. The last weekly level low was 160600, which formed during the week of May 8th. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 177800 above the market. For now on a broader perspective, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 16 months. The last monthly level low was 136200, which formed during December 2015, 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 212250, which was created during July 2016. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

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