Traders Cooperative

[cy esp]

Joe, Jim Brown is right on. My read is that the "lower tertiary trend (or play)" will yield the 5-15 billion barrels, I have not seen any estimates for the specific fields/wells drilled to date. Devon has a nice write up on the play here....

http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/67/670/67097/items/210959/LowerTertiaryWebcastslides.pdf

All the press on this discovery seems very odd to me. There have been no report of the proved reserves, all that is released is a speculative, statistical model of future discoveries. It is like forecasting the hurricane season, the water is warm so we should have an active season. Maybe we should have had an active season, but for other reasons we have had a light season....so far.

It seems that someone is very interested in some good news to bring down oil prices before the mid-term elections. But now I'm sounding paranoid.

The key point that Jim makes is that the increasing demand with flat to declining supply situation is so dire, that even some very encouraging news about a world class new play, makes only the tinyest dent in the gap.