Friday, May 19, 2017 4:41:03 PM
AVXL 1 month/30 minute chart
the holding box. Its been going on for 2 months not just one. since the 6.64 peak collapsed to 4.95 support, then the rising wedge that went nowhere but back down, to test the base at 5.60 area. .This could be all just a Range while we wait for news. It could rally back to 6.15 and get hammered back down like itdid this latest time,in the last 2 weeks. and it stays stuck in this box until we get real news generate the next movement that changes this sideways holding pattern.
its getting boring drawing the same chart over and over. I have to at least make it colorful if theres nothing new to describe.
A bullish rally momentum could have developed, IF the rally peak 6.15 had held support around 5.80. That's been the rally pattern for many weeks now. But when it falls below that 5.80/5.75 balance point, the downwave shape starts to become the focus, and as 5.60 base gets hit, that becomes a critical moment..... these last few days were critical to the chart pattern. The 5.60 base needed to hold ,which it did...BUT ALSO , FROM this 5.60 base should come a bullish bounce that demonstrates some strength.....and that bullish bounce did NOT happen. it failed at the expected resistance zone 5.85/5.90, and retested the 5.60 base again....and that showed greater bearish momentum instead of bullish strength. In that sense, I feel the sentiment is looking more downward than upward. BUT having said that, the technical math is more neutral, since there is a slightly bullish tone to the support line at 5.75 Holding. to see any step above the 5.60 base, holding, the 5.70/5.75, is a "higher low" in that sense, it has to be recognized. as was the "higher high" of 5.90 , versus 5.85...this cute price action can be seen as a clue, but it can also be rendered meaningless, if the MM's want to surge or plunge price a few steps from here, more volatile moves that rush up and down 20 cents and 30 cents... so stepping back a little to see the longer time frame, its the base at 5.60 versus the 6.00-5.90 resistance area, the battle zone in play, inside this holding /waiting box. (5.30-6.30)
IF the momentum ending the week is bearish, its possible we could see another falling knife plunge to the 5.30-5.37 target for the next dip to buy. But ,in the larger picture, it can take a few weeks to develop a bottoming formation, and as price was kicked down to retest 5.60 a few times, its not a bad sign if it does make a double bottom and make a base,at 5.60.... but it will need to show strength in a good rally bounce from there. and that didnt happen right away (this week).
Otherwise there aren't too many other clues to see in this chart... its zig zagging between 5.60 and 6.10 for many weeks, and no sign of any greater rally out of this box from this weeks price action...in fact as I say, the direction has shown stronger bearish action than bullish.as this battle in the 5.80 zone plays out.
the holding box. Its been going on for 2 months not just one. since the 6.64 peak collapsed to 4.95 support, then the rising wedge that went nowhere but back down, to test the base at 5.60 area. .This could be all just a Range while we wait for news. It could rally back to 6.15 and get hammered back down like itdid this latest time,in the last 2 weeks. and it stays stuck in this box until we get real news generate the next movement that changes this sideways holding pattern.
its getting boring drawing the same chart over and over. I have to at least make it colorful if theres nothing new to describe.
A bullish rally momentum could have developed, IF the rally peak 6.15 had held support around 5.80. That's been the rally pattern for many weeks now. But when it falls below that 5.80/5.75 balance point, the downwave shape starts to become the focus, and as 5.60 base gets hit, that becomes a critical moment..... these last few days were critical to the chart pattern. The 5.60 base needed to hold ,which it did...BUT ALSO , FROM this 5.60 base should come a bullish bounce that demonstrates some strength.....and that bullish bounce did NOT happen. it failed at the expected resistance zone 5.85/5.90, and retested the 5.60 base again....and that showed greater bearish momentum instead of bullish strength. In that sense, I feel the sentiment is looking more downward than upward. BUT having said that, the technical math is more neutral, since there is a slightly bullish tone to the support line at 5.75 Holding. to see any step above the 5.60 base, holding, the 5.70/5.75, is a "higher low" in that sense, it has to be recognized. as was the "higher high" of 5.90 , versus 5.85...this cute price action can be seen as a clue, but it can also be rendered meaningless, if the MM's want to surge or plunge price a few steps from here, more volatile moves that rush up and down 20 cents and 30 cents... so stepping back a little to see the longer time frame, its the base at 5.60 versus the 6.00-5.90 resistance area, the battle zone in play, inside this holding /waiting box. (5.30-6.30)
IF the momentum ending the week is bearish, its possible we could see another falling knife plunge to the 5.30-5.37 target for the next dip to buy. But ,in the larger picture, it can take a few weeks to develop a bottoming formation, and as price was kicked down to retest 5.60 a few times, its not a bad sign if it does make a double bottom and make a base,at 5.60.... but it will need to show strength in a good rally bounce from there. and that didnt happen right away (this week).
Otherwise there aren't too many other clues to see in this chart... its zig zagging between 5.60 and 6.10 for many weeks, and no sign of any greater rally out of this box from this weeks price action...in fact as I say, the direction has shown stronger bearish action than bullish.as this battle in the 5.80 zone plays out.
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