Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[NWDR]

Epilepsy

2.2M US
2.6M EU
1.0M Japan

5.8M existing patients

assume 25% of pop treated

1.45M treated patients


$10,000 per year cost (I would hope AVXL will reduce costs lower than this)

$14.5B per year revenue

assume 25% margin (probably too low... more like 50% margin)
assume outstanding shares at 60M

$60.42 EPS just for Epilepsy, PE of 10 yields a pps of ~$600 per share

The dollar amounts are staggering. However, I hope and pray that Dr. Chris Missling doesn't attempt to wring the last penny out of all the people suffering with Epilepsy and other CNS diseases. My prayer is that as A2-73 is approved for more and more indications that the price is lowered until we are looking at ~$600 per year or $50 per month. Something that most patients and their families can afford. And that the savings in current costs do not go the insurance companies but in reduced costs for all of us.

in millions
US EU Japan
AZ 5.3 5.3 1.8
Epi 2.2 2.6 1.0
PK 1.0 1.0 0.5
DM 35.0 35.0 15.0 (dementia)

ITT pop = 105.7M

assume 25% treated
at a $600 per year cost of A2-73

AVXL revenue $15.86B

AVXL could price 2-73 at $30,000 per year when the first indication is approved... Like Rett syndrome.. and lower costs as more indications are approved. Lots of revenue for shareholder reward and to bring forward the pipeline 3-17, etc..

GO AVXL