ABOUTTHEBENNY - I don't agree with your valuation.
You calculated the NPV for revenues for the coming years and divided by the shares outstanding to arrive at a share price estimate. Essentially what you are saying is that the market cap of Innovus will be directly proportional to the revenue. That is not true.
If we step out of this penny stock hype, we can agree that share price, which drives the market cap depends on the following:
- Existing cash flows
- Future cash flows aka growth and profitable growth
- Profitability of the company
- balance sheet
- and the management
Unfortunately, Innovus has very little going on for it everywhere.
The focus is on launching 7-8 products in this year, Damaj is paying himself a Million $ salary on a company that is bleeding money, we are not cash flow positive there is just too much to correct.
Currently, with a share price of $.10 and a shares outstanding of 150M, the market cap is at $15M already. This is for a company that doesn't make money, and has a history of dilution. When Fluticare hits and let's assume that FY18 revenues are $30M (aggressive), we should be valued at max double of the share price right now.
Given if we have net earnings of 3M$ next year, and if I put a multiple of 15, will give me a fair valuation of $45M. That means the share price should barely do 2-2.5X of what it is right now. Unless Fluticare hits big (>>50M) and Vesele hits big with the Viagra study, this share price will not go any more than that.
A 7-8 bagger is completely out of question. Impossible. That would mean a market cap of 0.8 X 200M (shares) = $160M. for a company that is not NOI positive. Rationally, I don't believe that. Let me just do a quick reality check here, Amazon - Revenues $135B, Market Cap - $475B. Market cap is almost 3.5 times revenues, and this Amazon with explosive growth potential. We are no where near.
Now, stepping back in to the penny stock hype, sure this stock will have a heyday when the ANDA approval comes in and some other news flows in. It will be pumped to the roof. I am waiting for that and I will get out at that point. I do own shares and am just waiting patiently
