Monday, May 15, 2017 5:13:36 PM
Most people here currently assume that current WMIH valuation is in the 6 billion NOLs. I say that is deceptive. Lets just assume for now that those NOLs are worth zero. There are currently 200 millions WMIH shares. Lets say the illiquid portfolio coming back from safe harbor is worth $35 billion. Lets say WMIH issues 3.5 billion shares to escrow holders in exchange for the $35 billion portfolio. I ask you. What do you think the "diluted" stocks are going to be worth.
The answer is they will be worth around $10. Since the dilutive shares are 3.5 billion and the original shares are only 200 million, the total valuation is essentially going to be worth whatever the portfolio is valued at... in this case it will be $35 billion / 3.7 billion total shares... approximately $10. This is on the conservative side of valuation.
As you can see, it doesnt matter what our cureent $6 billion NOL is going to be valued at with new Trump Tax. The main valuation jump for current 200 million shares of WMIH common stocks are going to come from the 3.5 billion shares "dilution" for the shares exchange with escrow for whatever illiquid loan portfolio is left in safe harbor.
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